Your Guide to the NHL 2024/25: Metropolitan Division

Don't miss the preview of the other divisions, Pacific Division, Central Division, Atlantic Division. Like previous seasons, I will continue to rate each team section from 1-5. The overall score will determine the team rankings. To keep the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of going into each individual player that forms the basis of the rating. I will continue using the same model as in previous seasons. I remind you that models, while useful, are just one tool in a larger toolbox.

Preview of the NHL 2024/25

As usual, many teams have made moves, something I always love from a betting perspective. It creates opportunities for us bettors to find an edge before the market adapts to the changes.

Last year, we saw an exciting final where the Edmonton Oilers came back from a 3-0 deficit against Florida to tie 3-3 before the Panthers finally decided the outcome in the seventh and final game. This year, the Edmonton Oilers enter as the Stanley Cup favorites. Can they handle the pressure of being the favorites? Join me as I dive into every team in the NHL and share my winners, losers, and major surprises!

8. Columbus Blue Jackets

It is with a heavy heart that we enter this season for the Columbus Blue Jackets after the tragic loss of the team's biggest star, Johnny Gaudreau. Johnny was not only an exceptional player on the ice, but also a role model and an inspiration to his teammates and fans around the world. His tragic passing just a few weeks ago has left an enormous void, not only in the squad but also for all of us who have followed his career for many years.

We can expect his teammates to play for him throughout the season. Unfortunately, from a sports perspective, it will be difficult for the Blue Jackets to hope for any major success. The team struggled at the bottom all last season and finished last in the Eastern Conference. Ahead of the season, Sean Monahan, Jack Johnson, James van Riemsdyk, and Jordan Harris have been brought in. Departing are Alex Nylander, Alexandre Texier, and Adam Boqvist. Frankly, the new signings have not made the Blue Jackets significantly better. Without Gaudreau in the lineup, the forward group leaves much to be desired. I've always liked Sean Monahan, especially during his time with the Calgary Flames, where he was a top-tier second/third-line player. The fact that he will now center the first line says a lot about the Blue Jackets' glaring gaps. There is talent in the forward group. Players like Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, and Cole Sillinger are rising stars and may have improved for this season. Unfortunately, it won't be enough.

The defense is of slightly higher quality than the forwards. But even here, it doesn’t quite exude top-class. Zach Werenski and Damon Severson are an offensive defensive pair who contribute significantly offensively, but often at the expense of the defense. In goal, Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov will guard the net once again this season. Neither had a great season, but it's also a thankless task being a goalie in Columbus. The team has a long road ahead and much to work through before they are a complete team again. Johnny Gaudreau’s absence will undoubtedly be felt deeply, both on and off the ice, and while the team will play in his memory, it's hard to see how they can elevate themselves to a new level without him. Columbus faces a long and arduous journey, with the goal not just to win games but also to rebuild the identity and strength that once defined the team. It is a process that will take time, and Johnny will always be a part of that journey — in every game, every battle, and every step forward. Rest in peace.

7. Philadelphia Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers, led by coach John Tortorella, came very close to surprising everyone and snatching a playoff spot last season. But after finishing the season very weakly, they eventually lost their grip on the final wild-card spot and were left standing on the sidelines when the playoffs began.

So, have the Flyers gotten better ahead of this season in the chase for that playoff spot? No. Why? They haven’t added a single player during the offseason. The notable event is that Cam Atkinson has left the Flyers and been replaced by Matvei Michkov. The young Russian was drafted seventh overall in the 2023 draft and has spent the last season playing for HK Sochi in the KHL. There, he displayed high-quality play, recording 19 goals and 22 assists in 47 games. Without having seen him in the NHL, it’s hard to say if he is an upgrade over Atkinson. He probably is, but as an unproven player, he will be judged accordingly. A lot actually went well for the Philadelphia Flyers for large parts of last season. Most notably, the five-on-five play was better than expected, and in xGF% (expected goals for percentage), the team was in the same category as teams like the Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche (naturalstattrick). The problem, however, was the power play. A 12.2% effectiveness was by far the weakest in the entire league, and that rarely leads to playoffs for a team like Philadelphia. It didn’t help that the team’s starting goaltender, Carter Hart, is one of five players accused of sexual assault in connection with a hockey gala in 2018 after the World Juniors gold. He is no longer part of the team. Instead, the Flyers had to rely on Samuel Ersson, who will be joined this season by Ivan Fedotov. They are hardly contending to be the league's best goalie tandem.

The Flyers' roster has its bright spots. Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett, and Joel Farabee, among others, are at a good age and started delivering last season. Someone who struggled more was team captain Sean Couturier, who didn’t seem to get along with John Tortorella at all. When he was benched during the regular season, many eyebrows were raised, although it was somewhat characteristic of the controversial coach. In this case, it helped little. But there’s no doubt about who is calling the shots. There are hopes that younger players like Tyson Foerster and Bobby Brink can take another step forward and make the team more competitive. Whether it’s enough to give the Flyers a higher standing is something I’m doubtful about. I think the material they have to work with is just a little too thin. Tortorella has a knack for getting the most out of his teams, but squeezing water from a stone is not an easy task for anyone. There is decent forward depth and a serviceable defense. But while the Flyers haven’t improved during the offseason, their competitors have strengthened their squads. Perhaps they can challenge higher up, but I’m doubtful.

6. Washington Capitals

While nothing has happened for the Philadelphia Flyers, it's been the opposite for the Washington Capitals. There's quite a bit to go over. To start, Max Pacioretty, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Beck Malenstyn, Nick Jensen, and Darcy Kuemper have left. Coming in are Andrew Mangiapane, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brandon Duhaime, Matt Roy, Jakob Chychrun, and Logan Thompson. We’re talking about improvements across the board!

The Capitals managed to reach the playoffs last season with a goal difference of minus 37, something that’s doubtful we will see again. When they collapsed, they did so thoroughly. But they somehow fought their way to points in the right games and were at their best when it counted. Now they want to make the playoffs again, and to do that, they needed to strengthen their roster significantly, something they have succeeded in doing. Andrew Mangiapane and Pierre-Luc Dubois add the offensive firepower in the top six that the Capitals have been lacking in recent years. More importantly, the team has significantly bolstered its defense by acquiring Matt Roy and Jakob Chychrun, two high-caliber players. This duo strengthens the team’s top four defenders considerably, and the trade for Chychrun, where an out-of-form Nick Jensen went the other way, was a real steal. Matt Roy is a personal favorite, a hard-working defensive defenseman who rarely gets enough credit but is so important behind the scenes. Pierre-Luc Dubois comes off a tough season, but trading for him instead of Darcy Kuemper was a move I liked. The Capitals are solid with the current goaltending duo and needed to strengthen their forward depth.

Bringing in Logan Thompson instead of Darcy Kuemper might not add points in the end, but for a much cheaper price, I think he was a bargain. Thompson is a good NHL goalie who was an important piece during his time with the Vegas Golden Knights. However, it’s likely to still be Charlie Lindgren who holds the number-one spot. He was one of the single biggest reasons the Capitals managed to make the playoffs. His great form dipped a bit towards the end of the season, but for much of the year, he was unbeatable. The goaltending duo, in other words, feels stable. The rest of the team is familiar. Alexander Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson are true veterans. The team is definitely better ahead of this season. But they will also need to play much better if they hope to secure a playoff spot. I’m unsure if the roster is good enough for that. It will be interesting to see how they put it together, but as of now, there are teams I think have a better chance.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins, synonymous with the playoffs for nearly two decades, from 2007 to 2022, have had a couple of rough years. Last season marked the second year in a row they failed to reach the playoffs. Now the question is whether Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have grown too old to make one last push before they have to hang up their skates?

The team hasn’t made too many changes ahead of this season. Kevin Hayes, Anthony Beauvillier, and Matt Grzelcyk have joined the squad. Departing are Reilly Smith, Jeff Carter, and Pierre-Olivier Joseph. Carter hanging up his skates was good for all involved. He was well past his prime and became somewhat of a burden for the team's bottom six. Bringing in Kevin Hayes there is an improvement. The problem, however, is that losing Reilly Smith is hard to replace in the top six. Anthony Beauvillier compensates somewhat, but overall, he is a downgrade. On the other hand, the defense receives a much-needed boost with Matt Grzelcyk. The sum of it all? Pretty much a wash.

Pittsburgh's potential success, like so many times before, must come through the core players. Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson. These are hardly rookies. Going back a few years, we’re talking about some of the best players in the league. Erik Karlsson won the Norris Trophy in the 2022/2023 season, and Crosby once again averaged over a point per game last season. In other words, there is quality. It’s also not that they can’t create offense. The team had positive underlying numbers last season despite missing the playoffs. So what’s the problem? To start, it didn’t help that they had the third-weakest power play in the league, which surprised many. The addition of Erik Karlsson was meant to improve those numbers, but the power play went from 21.7% in the 2022/2023 season to 15.3% last season. What about goaltending? It was actually decent. Tristan Jarry did what he was supposed to without being particularly impressive, and Alex Nedeljkovic was okay when he played. The loss of Jake Guentzel during the season shouldn’t be underestimated. He is one of the league's best finishers, and the Penguins had a significant hole in their lineup that they couldn’t fill. They also had some injury problems. Bryan Rust missed 20 games, and Rakell was absent for 12. In context, though, this is relatively minor, as the other stars were healthy for almost all 82 games, something the Penguins haven't always been fortunate with in recent years.

The harsh reality may be that the Pittsburgh Penguins are no longer better than, at best, a wild-card team if the entire roster stays healthy. Crosby is still one of modern hockey's most talented players and has been a poster boy for the NHL for nearly two decades. He has led the Pittsburgh Penguins to tremendous success. But the sad reality is that he is now 36 years old. Malkin has turned 37, Bryan Rust is 31, Letang is 36, Erik Karlsson is 33, and Rakell is 30. The core around which the team is built is aging. It’s not quite as fast and flashy anymore. The team is also sensitive to injuries. Even though they were spared from too many injury problems last season, the risk of injuries with an aging roster is always a bit higher. I don’t rule out that Pittsburgh has enough talent to get back into the playoff race. But with the team having missed the playoffs two years in a row and only getting older, the future looks bleak. The end of an era may not be here yet, but it’s not far away.

4. New York Islanders

For the second season in a row, the New York Islanders secured a wild-card spot by a narrow margin. The team has become synonymous with stability, consistently finishing just above the 90-point mark. Last season, they recorded 94 points in the regular season, and the season before that, 93 points. That’s where the expectations lie for them again this year. In classic Islanders fashion, they haven’t bothered to make any drastic changes ahead of this season either.

They’ve let go of Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin, who played together on the fourth line last season. It became very apparent during the previous season that they no longer worked, and letting them go was a logical move. The Islanders have instead brought in Anthony Duclair, who last season played for the San Jose Sharks and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The 29-year-old Canadian scored 24 goals in 73 games last season. What the Islanders have signed is, in other words, a real goal scorer who will be a welcome addition among the team’s top forwards. I think the recruitment feels like a classic Islanders decision. They are always very methodical with the players they bring in, and Duclair fits well within their framework. Few changes, but clearly for the better, and they will hardly diminish their chances of reaching the playoffs again, quite the opposite. To cover the loss of both players, they have also signed Russian Maxim Tsyplakov from the KHL. He scored 31 goals in 65 games for Spartak Moscow last season. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the NHL, as it will be his first time playing outside Russia.

Otherwise, the Islanders are a team build. Sure, there are players who stand out a little more than others. Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, and Noah Dobson all delivered at the top last season. Perhaps most important was that Barzal had his best season since 2017/2018, as expectations have always been high for him without the delivery to match. Now, it was 80 points in 82 games. Defenseman Noah Dobson also took a big step forward, dishing out 60 assists in 79 games and helping the Islanders improve their power play. But the biggest star on the team is not a skater. Even though Ilya Sorokin didn’t have his best season, he is a world-class goaltender and, at his best, perhaps the best goalie in the world. He will continue to be joined by Semyon Varlamov, it seems. Although Marcus Högberg would probably love to replace him if given the chance. All in all, it’s the “same old” New York Islanders we’ve seen in recent seasons. They exude stability as usual, and while the play is often downright boring, it’s effective. The fact that the Islanders have also improved their roster slightly with the signing of Duclair only strengthens my view of them as a playoff team again this season.

3. New York Rangers

The New York Rangers dominated the Eastern Conference last year when they managed to rack up 114 points in the regular season. It was the third year in a row that the team passed the 100-point mark with a comfortable margin, and they are again expected to be at the top and compete. I think it’s fair to have high expectations for them this year as well, but the team has lost quite a bit of quality. Especially the forward depth has taken a hit.

Jack Roslovic, Alex Wennberg, Barclay Goodrow, and Erik Gustafsson have left during the offseason. Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg, we should remember, were late additions to the roster, and both played only about twenty games with the Rangers last season. Despite this, the loss of both, along with Goodrow, clearly weakens the depth that the forward group had at the end of last season. Even though losing Goodrow actually helps the Rangers after the poor season he had. As I wrote earlier, I’m a big fan of Erik Gustafsson, and losing him definitely weakens the third defensive pairing significantly. It may not be vital, but the defense is not getting better without him. To make up for the losses, they have signed Reilly Smith from the Pittsburgh Penguins. He will probably not disappoint anyone, but at the same time, he won’t be a big surprise either. A solid forward with the ability to score over 20 goals in a good season.

In other words, the team is a slightly weaker version of the Rangers that left the ice in the playoffs after being eliminated by the Florida Panthers in the Conference Final. That said, this is a very good hockey team that deserves respect. But something that has been problematic and that I’ve struggled to like about the Rangers is their reliance on special teams. They had the third-best power play and penalty kill in the league last season. At the same time, they had negative underlying numbers in five-on-five play. Their xGF% (expected goals for percentage) ranked 22nd in the league (naturalstattrick). In practice, this means several things. First and foremost, they allow more chances against than they create offensively. Through an effective power play, the team compensates for this somewhat. They have one of the world’s best goalies in Igor Shesterkin, who, along with Jonathan Quick, formed one of the league’s best goalie tandems. This also compensates for a lot when they save more pucks than an average goalie would. I’m well aware that with players like Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Adam Fox, the team will often overperform its xG (expected goals). At the same time, I wonder if it’s reasonable to maintain that style of play season after season and just expect to get better. They collected 114 points last year; can they do it again this year? Probably, but at the same time, the point line is set at over/under 100.5 points, which is reasonable. I might be making the same mistake again as the bookmakers in underestimating the New York Rangers, but at the same time, it’s hard to expect more from a team that has already overperformed several seasons in a row. Once you reach the top, there’s usually nowhere to go but down.

2. New Jersey Devils

Wow, wow, wow, hold on to your hats because there’s been a lot of movement here! The New Jersey Devils had a tough season last year. The team was expected to be one of the top contenders, but nothing clicked, and they ended up in 13th place (!) in the Eastern Conference. Only 81 points were far below acceptable. To address some of the problems the team had, they’ve reloaded for a comeback this season.

Gone are Alexander Holtz, Tomas Nosek, John Marino, Kevin Bahl, and Kaapo Kahkonen. The Devils have found their replacements in Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar, Paul Cotter, Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon, and Jacob Markstrom. We’re talking about top-tier upgrades here. The Devils have lacked a solid goaltender who provides security at the back of the ice for several years. In Markstrom, the Devils have signed a genuinely good goalie. Bringing him in instead of Kahkonen is an upgrade of extreme proportions for a team that hasn’t had a “real” NHL starting goalie for years. Jake Allen, who shared the starting job with Kahkonen, will now move into the backup role behind Markstrom. This gives the Devils a completely different goaltending situation, with entirely different prospects not just to make the playoffs but also to be a contender in the race for the Stanley Cup. Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon are two valuable additions on the blue line who will further strengthen the Devils' defense. The duo is a clear defensive upgrade compared to John Marino and Kevin Bahl and should complement the team's future star defensemen well, while also making the goalies’ jobs easier.

Offensively, there have been fewer changes that are not as significant. Sure, Tomas Tatar and Paul Cotter are solid acquisitions, but the offensive firepower was already in place with the existing players. However, I believe that Tatar fills the important role of being a leader and keeping a cool head when the young forward group tends to get a bit anxious. For the Devils, much will depend on keeping their talented players healthy. Both Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Timo Meier struggled with injuries last season, which contributed to the team’s “collapse.” No one can doubt, however, that the talent within this team is of the highest caliber. The Hughes brothers hardly need any introduction, especially Jack, who could easily break the 100-point barrier this season if he stays healthy. Timo Meier is one of the league's sharpest finishers, and Jesper Bratt has emerged as one of the best Swedish players in the league. Last season, the 26-year-old scored 27 goals and provided 56 assists.

The offense was already there last season, but it was the weak defense and goaltending, combined with injuries to key players, that ruined the season for the Devils. Now they’ve strengthened the defense significantly with defensively skilled defensemen while adding a truly good goaltender in Jacob Markstrom. The fact that they also managed to offload weak links in the lineup makes it hard for me not to raise the New Jersey Devils. Sure, there are a few concerns with Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce looking likely to start the season injured. But once they’re back in the lineup, and if the team stays relatively healthy, the Devils should be a serious contender. The only downside is that the bookmakers have valued them accordingly.

1. Carolina Hurricanes

Last but not least, the Carolina Hurricanes! It’s not the first season I’ve chosen to place them at the top of the Metropolitan Division. Here is a truly strong and defensively stable team with a lot of talent that has yet to achieve the major success they perhaps deserve. Ahead of the season, several quality players have left, but despite this, I think there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic. Especially when the team isn’t even being valued as the favorite in the division.

Let’s start with the players who have left: Jake Guentzel, Stefan Noesen, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, and Teuvo Teravainen. There’s no point in denying that these are major losses. Guentzel is a star forward whom they knew they wouldn’t be able to keep; his entire stint with the Hurricanes was very temporary, as he joined late in the season. The loss of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce essentially means that the team’s second defensive pairing is gone. To replace them, the Canes have brought in Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere. Two experienced defensemen with plenty of offensive capacity. They are cheaper, and while there’s a reason for that, I’m relatively optimistic about the signings. A downgrade, but not as significant as some might suggest. In the forward group, the Hurricanes have added Jack Roslovic and William Carrier. They are solid additions for the middle lines, both hardworking players with slightly different characteristics. Carrier is particularly skilled defensively, while Roslovic can contribute more offensively. They are not enough to make up for the loss of Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen, but they are players who seem to fit well within Carolina's team structure.

The team may lack some of the top-tier talent that some competitors have. The biggest star on the team is Sebastian Aho, who was also the team’s top scorer last season with 36 goals and 53 assists. He’s no McDavid or Matthews, but what you have to remember is how the Hurricanes like to play hockey. They are very structured and defensively focused. Therefore, it’s no surprise that they, along with a couple of other teams, allowed the fewest xGA (expected goals against) in five-on-five play last season. Not only is it incredibly difficult to create high-quality chances against the Hurricanes, but they are also very good at driving play in five-on-five and creating offensively. Only the Edmonton Oilers had a better xGF% (expected goals for percentage) last season. Where they sometimes lack is on the power play. A 19.8% success rate last season indicates room for improvement, and perhaps we’ll see Gostisbehere contribute here, as he’s skilled in this area. The team also has a young star in Seth Jarvis, who had a breakout season last year. The young Canadian scored 33 goals, and his new 8-year contract worth $7.9 million annually could soon be one of the best contracts in the league.

Like the New York Rangers, I expect a slight decline for the Carolina Hurricanes. But a team that has recorded 116, 113, and 111 points over the past three seasons can handle a couple of major player losses. Especially when they’ve managed to sign players who seem to fit well into the team. The team is not as strong as it was at the end of last season. But it still has enough quality and a solid foundation to be a serious contender for the Stanley Cup this year as well. For me, point totals and division winners are especially appealing bets. Especially when some bookmakers rank them third in the division.

Betting Tips