Tip: A red-hot Minnesota Wild visits Canada’s bottom-placed team

There are no easy games in the NHL. Even though Minnesota is blazing hot at the moment, you still have to respect the Calgary Flames — something today’s odds movement on the Wild also reflects. After today’s stream, I decided to wait and see if the odds would drift enough to become playable — which I believe they now have.

“The Wall of St. Paul”

No one has missed Jesper Wallstedt’s surge in the NHL. What he’s doing right now is nothing short of spectacular. Four shutouts in his last six games is absurdly good, and one can only hope that Hallam dares to bring the red-hot goaltender to the Olympics.

But Minnesota does not live or die by Wallstedt alone. Filip Gustavsson is also delivering strong numbers and performing well above an average NHL goalie. With a Goals Saved Above Expected of +7.4 over 17 games, Gustavsson too is a reliable and steady last line of defense. Wild therefore boasts one of the league’s most cohesive and high-performing goaltending duos.

Up front, the $17-million Russian has shown exactly why he’s worth his price tag: 17 goals and 14 assists in 27 games speak for themselves. Meanwhile, American Matt Boldy continues to look like a superstar on the second line, and the Swedish duo Marcus Johansson and Joel Eriksson Ek contribute with both stability and production. In short, there is an incredible sense of harmony within the Wild right now.

Doing many things right – but still coming up short

My view of the Calgary Flames is perhaps a bit more nuanced than what you often read among supporters. The team has solid underlying numbers, they shoot a lot, and they do many things well. But the overall impression remains that the team is simply… inadequate.

Nearly 30 games into the season, Calgary is still the team with the fewest points in the league. Last season, they surprised positively and came close to a playoff berth — largely thanks to Dustin Wolf being one of the league’s best goalies for long stretches. That version of Wolf, however, has been nowhere to be seen this year. Instead, Devin Cooley has been the clearly better of the two. Wolf is expected to start again tonight, which should be seen as an advantage for our pick.

Another clear issue is the offense. Calgary lacks players who can carry the team forward. They often look entirely harmless, and although I like Rasmus Andersson a lot, he should not be the player with the second-most points on a team after nearly 30 games. No player has even reached 10 goals, and it’s obvious the team lacks a natural go-to guy in decisive moments.

Conclusion & Betting Pick

As mentioned: I waited for the odds to climb, which I suspected they would during the afternoon. The market seems a bit too fixated on Calgary’s solid underlying metrics. The problem, in my opinion, is that those numbers are partly inflated by the fact that the team frequently has to chase from behind. When you’re trailing, you shoot more, drive more play, and create more chances — but that doesn’t necessarily say anything about the team’s actual quality.

It also doesn’t help that Calgary lacks players who can consistently convert the chances they do create. The offense is simply too toothless. And with Wolf losing last year’s form and underperforming throughout the season, the situation hasn’t improved for the Flames. I think we’ll see the Wild pick up yet another win here tonight!

Betting pick: Minnesota Wild ML @ -112 FanDuel