Your Guide to the NHL 2024/2025: Central Division

Don't miss the first part, Pacific Division! Like previous seasons, I will continue to rate each team section from 1-5. The overall score will determine the team rankings. To keep the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of going into each individual player that forms the basis of the rating. I will continue using the same model as in previous seasons. I remind you that models, while useful, are just one tool in a larger toolbox.

Preview of the NHL 2024/25

As usual, many teams have made moves, something I always love from a betting perspective. It creates opportunities for us bettors to find an edge before the market adapts to the changes.

Last year, we saw an exciting final where the Edmonton Oilers came back from a 3-0 deficit against Florida to tie 3-3 before the Panthers finally decided the outcome in the seventh and final game. This year, the Edmonton Oilers enter as the Stanley Cup favorites. Can they handle the pressure of being the favorites? Join me as I dive into every team in the NHL and share my winners, losers, and major surprises!

8. Chicago Blackhawks

After a tough season last year, the Chicago Blackhawks have only one direction to go—forward. General Manager Kyle Davidson has made it clear that it's time to take steps in the right direction. With a significant amount of cap space and room for player movement, Davidson had the opportunity to significantly reshape the team heading into this season, and he seized the moment.

Chicago made several key signings. They brought in forwards like Ilya Mikheyev, Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, as well as experienced defensemen Alec Martinez and TJ Brodie. Additionally, they strengthened their goaltending with the addition of Laurent Brossoit. In total, eight new players have joined the team, bringing the Blackhawks closer to becoming a more competitive squad. The most notable improvements are in the top-six forwards, where Bertuzzi and Teravainen are expected to play crucial roles alongside rising star Connor Bedard on the first line.

On defense, Martinez and Brodie have provided much-needed stability, which will give young players like Kevin Korchinski time to develop. The Blackhawks also retained their top pairing, Alex Vlasic and Seth Jones. The defense is starting to come together and looks significantly better compared to previous seasons. Meanwhile, the bottom six has been bolstered by players like Craig Smith and Patrick Maroon, providing more depth and lineup options. Taylor Hall, who missed most of last season due to injury, is also expected to return. As I've mentioned before, Hall performs best when he's not expected to carry the team. This was evident when he thrived in a secondary role in Boston, and his offensive production improved immediately. However, don’t expect another Hart Memorial Trophy anytime soon.

I'm not predicting any miracles, and the playoffs still feel like a distant goal for this roster. However, I do expect significantly better production from Chicago, led by Connor Bedard. He'll have much more support this season, and it's entirely possible that he could rack up 80-90 points now that he won't be left as exposed to the opposition.

7. St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues surprised me in a positive way last season, accumulating 92 points. However, it wasn't enough to secure a playoff spot. It marked the third consecutive year the Blues missed the playoffs, and their Stanley Cup victory in 2019 feels more distant than ever. They're now hoping to reverse the trend under new head coach Drew Bannister. Bannister took over from Craig Berube last season and led the team to 31 wins in 55 games, providing some optimism for the upcoming season. Over the summer, the Blues secured two key acquisitions from the Edmonton Oilers: Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, via offer sheets. In addition, Mathieu Joseph and Radek Faksa have joined the team. While the Blues lost Kevin Hayes, Calle Rosén, and Jakub Vrána, these departures seem to be covered by the new arrivals.

Offensively, there are some bright spots. The top line featuring Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou is packed with creativity. Neighbours had something of a breakout season with 27 goals last year. Meanwhile, Thomas and Kyrou continued to carry the offense, combining for 57 goals between them. The Blues also have a solid center in Pavel Buchnevich, who put up 27 goals and 36 assists last season. In short, there are some offensively skilled players on the Blues. The problem lies in the lack of depth behind them in recent years, and it doesn't seem much improved this season.

The biggest concern is a weak defense that doesn't instill fear in many. Torey Krug has some upside, but with him likely out for the entire season, an already thin defense suddenly becomes even weaker. Parayko is pretty much the only defenseman I trust to do the job properly on the defensive end. Broberg could grow into a top-4 defenseman and contribute defensively, but he's not there yet, and with most of the other defensemen past the age of 30, it doesn't seem like St. Louis has a long-term solution on defense either. Fortunately for the Blues, they still have Jordan Binnington in goal. While volatile, Binnington is one of the league's top goaltenders when he's at his best. Backup Joel Hofer also made significant strides last season. This helps compensate for the Blues' shortcomings, but with a thin defense and bottom-six forwards, I don't think they'll go far this season either.

6. Utah HC

Wait, a new team in the NHL? Yes and no, it's the Arizona Coyotes who have changed their name. The team was forced to relocate because the arena situation in Arizona was no longer sustainable. The choice fell on Salt Lake City in Utah. New name, same team—almost. Like many other teams in the league, there have been some moves here too.

The most notable acquisitions include Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino, and Ian Cole. Departing are J.J. Moser, Travis Dermott, and Josh Brown. Overall, Utah is one of the teams that has added the most value to their roster, and there is reason to be optimistic. Sergachev is no joke; he's a high-quality top defenseman who significantly boosts Utah's blueline. Ian Cole and John Marino are also solid recruits, strengthening the defense. For the first time in several years, Utah appears to have a defense worthy of the NHL.

The forward group remains familiar from last season, with the brightest star still being Clayton Keller. The 25-year-old forward netted 33 goals last season. Behind him, there is a talented and young roster. Logan Cooley (19), Dylan Guenther (20), Matias Maccelli (23), Josh Doan (21), and Barrett Hayton (23) represent the team's future. There's no doubt that there's plenty of talent, but the question now is whether Utah is ready for the playoffs. Not an easy question to answer. The roster has a good mix of youth and experience. At first glance, many might write off Utah's playoff chances. The team isn't packed with star names. But players like Nick Schmaltz, Nick Bjugstad, Kevin Stenlund, and Alex Kerfoot actually give Utah solid depth in the forward group in a way I don't think, for example, St. Louis Blues can match. The future is bright for Utah, as they have built this team wisely with patience. I have no doubt that they will be knocking on the playoff door soon, perhaps even this season. Especially since they are the team in the Central Division that has most clearly taken a step forward while their competitors are losing ground.

In goal, the team stands strong with Connor Ingram, who has stepped up and taken over the starting role from Karel Vejmelka. This, despite Vejmelka's somewhat weak season, suggests a decent goaltending duo. With the team so clearly strengthening their defense this season, there's a good chance we'll see a much more stable Utah that doesn't need to rely as heavily on goaltending as before. The reason I can't rank them higher is primarily due to their young roster. At this point, it's hard to know exactly how much more we can expect from the core of young players. It's likely they'll take another step forward from last year's production, but whether that's enough to surpass teams like Minnesota and Winnipeg remains to be seen.

5. Winnipeg Jets

What a season the Winnipeg Jets gave us! With 110 points, they secured second place in the Western Conference. Now the question is, can they repeat the feat? It's highly unlikely they'll come close this season. The explanation is simple: they've lost a tremendous amount of quality players. I’d go so far as to say Winnipeg has lost the most value of any team.

After last year's trade deadline, the Jets had one of the deepest forward groups in the league. But with Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan now gone, Winnipeg once again faces significant gaps in their lineup. The defense has also been weakened, with the loss of Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt, replaced by Logan Stanley and Colin Miller. In goal, the arrival of Kaapo Kahkonen marks a big downgrade compared to Laurent Brossoit. It feels like Winnipeg is back to square one.

The Winnipeg Jets can still boast a strong top-six. Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Cole Perfetti will surely make life difficult for opponents and be a formidable offensive force. However, it's important to note that the loss of Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli significantly weakens Winnipeg. While they aren't necessarily superstars, they are high-quality NHL forwards who provided the Jets with fantastic depth last season, something they won’t have this year. Also, let’s not forget that Winnipeg had a structured defense that worked well last season, which will be much tougher to maintain without Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt. Schmidt, in particular, was a defenseman many might not realize was incredibly important to the Jets' defense.

In goal, the Winnipeg Jets still have possibly the best goaltender in the world in Connor Hellebuyck. He was absolutely phenomenal last season and deservedly won his second Vezina Trophy (best goalie in the league). As long as he's healthy, he'll play 60+ games and be crucial for Winnipeg. However, when Kaapo Kahkonen takes over in goal for the remaining games, it's a noticeable downgrade from previous backup Laurent Brossoit. Winnipeg still has a team good enough to make the playoffs, but they won’t be reaching 110 points this year.

4. Minnesota Wild

As usual, there aren't too many drastic changes surrounding the Minnesota Wild. The team enters this season with almost the exact same roster that finished last season. Last year, they tallied 87 points, which wasn’t enough for a playoff spot. However, the Wild roster has shown much more potential in the past, as they collected 103 points two seasons ago and finished sixth in the Western Conference. So, what went wrong last season? One of the league's weakest penalty kills (74.5%) and poor goaltending are perhaps the most obvious answers. It didn’t help that Jared Spurgeon missed almost the entire season either.

Let me start with the goaltending situation. Minnesota has a very talented goalie in Filip Gustavsson, who has a bright future ahead of him. The team also has a goaltending legend in Marc-André Fleury. The Canadian deserves all the praise for his fantastic career, but the underlying numbers from last season suggest that the 39-year-old may want to consider hanging up his skates. Don’t get me wrong—at his best, he's still an incredible goaltender. However, I feel his new one-year contract might hold Minnesota back. I believe it would have been better if Jesper Wallstedt had stepped up as the backup goalie behind Filip Gustavsson. Unfortunately, this will likely be delayed for another year. Wallstedt is definitely NHL-ready, and I think Gustavsson could find more consistency in his game if he were clearly the number one goalie instead of sharing the role with Fleury. Sure, you can argue that Fleury's resume speaks for itself, but he hasn’t been improving in recent years.

Offensively, there’s little to complain about. Kaprizov & Co. know how to create chances and capitalize on them. Marco Rossi, the 22-year-old who spent a full season getting a taste of NHL action, should be able to take another step forward this year. He is undoubtedly in good company with Kaprizov and Zuccarello on the first line. The depth is also solid. Joel Eriksson Ek was phenomenal last season, and alongside Marcus Johansson and Matt Boldy, there’s plenty of offensive potential there too. The Wild’s defense remains strong as well, though Minnesota clearly needs Jared Spurgeon to stay healthy if they are to be a force to be reckoned with. What’s concerning is that many of Minnesota’s key players are aging. Last season’s injuries indicate a certain fragility that could continue to be a problem. At times, this left Kaprizov too isolated in his role as the team’s primary offensive driver. The Wild should still be considered more likely to make the playoffs than not, but this hinges on key players staying healthy and improving their penalty kill numbers this season.

3. Colorado Avalanche

This is not easy. The Colorado Avalanche have one of the strongest top-six groups in the league, but the question is: Who will actually be in it? Gabriel Landeskog has been out for two years, and while there is hope he will return this season, there are still many uncertainties. Valeri Nichushkin, the crucial two-way forward, is in stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA player support program for substance abuse issues and has been handed a six-month suspension. This has severely limited Colorado's ability to act during the offseason as they need to keep cap space open in case of his return. The same goes for Landeskog. If everything goes according to plan, Colorado will have two high-quality players joining the lineup. If it doesn't, the Avalanche will have significant gaps. Adding to the concerns, Artturi Lehkonen continues to struggle with injuries and is expected to miss the start of the season, leaving the team thin next to Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Casey Mittelstadt.

Despite all the question marks surrounding the team, they are still one of the betting favorites for the Stanley Cup, and I can see why. No one has missed the fact that the Avalanche's offensive capacity is among the highest in the league. When Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen get going, few teams can keep up. But despite their, and Cale Makar’s, incredible skill, support from the rest of the roster is needed. With so many uncertainties and a history of injuries to key players, you have to wonder whether this team can do it again. They lifted the cup in 2021/2022, a season when everything clicked, and the depth behind their stars was much better. Exactly which team Colorado puts on the ice this season remains highly unclear, and that significantly impacts their chances. Should the Avalanche have to go the whole season without Landeskog and Nichushkin, they’ll need to find a solution quickly to fill the thin bottom-six forward group.

The defense, however, is still top-tier. Cale Makar is one of the best defensemen in the world, and together with Devon Toews, I consider them the best defensive pairing in the league. Erik Brännström, who was brought in, is someone I hope will bloom in Colorado. I believe he has much more hockey in him than he’s shown at his previous clubs, and in my eyes, he has the potential to be a legitimate top-four defenseman in the NHL. As for goaltending, the Avalanche look much more interesting. Not because Alexander Georgiev will be replaced as the starter, but because talented Justus Annunen impressed greatly when he got his chance last season. We’ll have to see how good he really is, but if he performs like he did in the 12 games he started last season, Colorado may have a future top goalie on their hands. However, in the grand scheme of things, that’s small consolation for a team that wasn’t able to take the offseason actions they may have needed to give themselves the best possible chance. I’m not ruling out that the Avalanche could contend for the Stanley Cup again, but as things stand now, with all the uncertainties, it’s hard to believe they’ll go all the way. A fully healthy Colorado squad would rank higher, maybe even first in the Central, but this is the current reality.

2. Nashville Predators

While the Winnipeg Jets have lost many valuable players, the Nashville Predators have added significant quality to their roster! The team, which surprised the league last season with 99 points, is gearing up for another successful run. From the Tampa Bay Lightning comes Steven Stamkos, from the Vegas Golden Knights comes Jonathan Marchessault, and from the Carolina Hurricanes, they've added Brady Skjei. Wow.

Stamkos, who has been a point-producing machine in Tampa Bay throughout his career, joins Nashville with two Stanley Cup wins under his belt. After 16 (!) seasons with the Lightning, it will be an adjustment for him to wear the yellow jersey of the Predators, but his experience and skill will undoubtedly make Nashville more competitive. Jonathan Marchessault, who has been a key player for the Vegas Golden Knights throughout their relatively short history, has also lifted the Stanley Cup. These are two seasoned veterans who are boosting Nashville's forward group. While their contracts may not be the best in the long run, right now, they greatly improve the team's playoff chances. Let’s be clear: anything less than a playoff spot would be considered a failure.

Brady Skjei, brought in from the Carolina Hurricanes, will contribute more offensively than Ryan McDonagh. Like the contracts with Marchessault and Stamkos, Skjei’s seven-year, $7 million-per-year deal could come back to haunt the Predators in the future, especially since he's already 30. But for now, the Predators can boast one of the best defensive pairings in the league with Josi and Skjei. Skjei is a complete defenseman who will relieve Josi, who often carries a heavy load for the Predators. In goal, Juuse Saros remains one of the best goalies in the league, even though he's coming off a weak season. If Saros bounces back to his 2022/2023 form, he could be the difference between Nashville making a deep playoff run and perhaps even challenging for the Stanley Cup. A red-hot Saros can win games single-handedly.

The Nashville Predators are looking strong, very strong. They've added plenty of firepower and offensive flair, albeit at the cost of some defensive stability. The team is without question better going into this season. Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, and Gustav Nyquist will get much more help with offensive production. The new acquisitions provide the forward group with much-needed depth, allowing players like Colton Sissons and Luke Evangelista to slot into the third line and get easier minutes. However, Nashville needs to seize the moment. The roster is aging, and they won’t have many more chances before a rebuild becomes inevitable. Most of the team's key players are well into their 30s. I expect Nashville to make the playoffs, and once there, I wouldn't count them out too quickly.

1. Dallas Stars

I was all in on the Dallas Stars before last season, as I felt they were severely underrated. They went on to win the Western Conference but eventually fell to the Edmonton Oilers in the Conference Final. No shame in that. Going into this season, the Stars are more fairly valued by bookmakers. At the same time, they’re also one of the NHL teams that have lost the most value. Joe Pavelski has hung up his skates. Chris Tanev, Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpää, and Scott Wedgewood are gone. Incoming players include Colin Blackwell, Matt Dumba, Brendan Smith, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Casey DeSmith. These are clear downgrades.

Many might initially think that the loss of Joe Pavelski is the biggest issue, but I’m not at all worried about that for Dallas. The offensive talent in the team, with Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven, more than makes up for it. However, the defensive losses are truly significant. Chris Tanev is still considered one of the best defensive defensemen in the league. No one can seriously believe that Matt Dumba can fill that gap. The loss of Ryan Suter also means that the core of Dallas’s strong defense, which has been synonymous with the Stars for years, is now weakened. Sure, there’s still an excellent defensive pairing in Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley, but the depth behind them is nowhere near what it was last season.

The forward group is still very good, and the depth is enough to take Dallas far in the playoffs this year too. However, there’s no doubt that this isn’t the same level of team that ended last season. They should still be able to make a deep playoff run, and winning it all isn’t out of the question. But I can’t say I’m as excited to see them this season. When I placed a bet on them to win the Stanley Cup at +1700 odds before last season, it was with a better roster than they now have, and despite that, they’re priced around +1000 to win the Cup this year. In terms of value, there’s not much to get excited about. I do, however, agree with the bookmakers that they are the favorites to take the Central Division. The only issue is that they're priced accordingly.

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