Your Guide to the NHL 2024/25: Atlantic Division

Don't miss the first parts, Pacific Division, Central Division. Like previous seasons, I will continue to rate each team section from 1-5. The overall score will determine the team rankings. To keep the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of going into each individual player that forms the basis of the rating. I will continue using the same model as in previous seasons. I remind you that models, while useful, are just one tool in a larger toolbox.

Preview of the NHL 2024/25

As usual, many teams have made moves, something I always love from a betting perspective. It creates opportunities for us bettors to find an edge before the market adapts to the changes.

Last year, we saw an exciting final where the Edmonton Oilers came back from a 3-0 deficit against Florida to tie 3-3 before the Panthers finally decided the outcome in the seventh and final game. This year, the Edmonton Oilers enter as the Stanley Cup favorites. Can they handle the pressure of being the favorites? Join me as I dive into every team in the NHL and share my winners, losers, and major surprises!

8. Montreal Canadiens

Despite finishing last in the Atlantic Division again last season, it was a step forward for the Montreal Canadiens compared to previous years. The gameplay looked better, and the younger players who were expected to perform better did exactly that. Montreal's young first line excelled in five-on-five play, managing to create more chances than they allowed. Not an easy feat for a 20-year-old, a 24-year-old, and a 23-year-old carrying the expectations of one of the "Original Six" teams on their shoulders.

The Canadiens haven’t made any dramatic roster changes during the offseason but are continuing to build on their existing squad and the players coming up from within. One exception is Patrik Laine, who will be seen in a Montreal jersey this season. He may not be the X-factor he once was earlier in his career, but despite several tough seasons with injuries, it’s hard to ignore that in his last 129 games (three seasons), he has scored 117 points. If, against all odds, he manages to stay injury-free, he could certainly be a wildcard in the mix.

Much will still depend on the production from the first line. Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield are the star players Montreal is building around. Behind them, the Canadiens hope for good development from Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, and Joshua Roy. The Canadiens don’t just have many young players; there are still a few seasoned veterans on the team. Joel Armia, Brendan Gallagher, and Christian Dvorak, to name a few, have plenty of experience and can still contribute. Among the defensemen, we’ll see Lane Hutson making his NHL debut this season. He’s young but promising, especially with his offensive skills. How much he’ll be able to contribute this season is unclear, but there’s no doubt he looks like a player for the future. Montreal also has Kaiden Guhle, who I think took a significant step forward last year. He’s also young, just 22 years old, but he’s skilled across the ice and another promising name for the Canadiens to pin their hopes on. Overall, it's a relatively weak defensive group, with Mike Matheson and David Savard providing the veteran presence. One of the major issues has been the defensive aspect of the game in recent years. I don’t expect a huge leap, but as the Canadiens' young talents mature, it's reasonable to expect further progress. In goal, I think Montreal stands fairly strong with Cayden Primeau and Samuel Montembeault. Both delivered solid performances throughout last season and ended up with positive underlying stats.

I feel a bit boring for ranking the Montreal Canadiens last again. The team is making progress, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they managed to be closer to the teams above them in the division than before. At the same time, the team is too thin behind the top line, and the defensive group is not yet strong enough to challenge for a playoff spot. If Laine somehow manages 82 games and the youngsters take big strides forward, maybe we could see Montreal surprise everyone, but I think it’ll be a couple of seasons before they’re truly there. However, the upside is big enough to justify a point bet on them.

7. Detroit Red Wings

There are plenty of NHL fans who like the Detroit Red Wings, and many are likely optimistic ahead of the season. The Red Wings were tantalizingly close to making the playoffs last season but fell short against the Washington Capitals in the battle for the last wild card spot. There has been a lot of movement ahead of this season. If you listen to the fans, the mood is quite positive, and they are satisfied with the acquisitions made. However, I don’t agree at all. The team hitting the ice this season actually looks weaker. Let me explain why.

Yzerman has brought in Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Motte, Erik Gustafsson, and Cam Talbot. Departing the team are David Perron, Daniel Sprong, Robby Fabbri, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Jake Walman. Tarasenko may contribute more offensively than David Perron did, but it’s at the expense of defense. It doesn’t surprise me that Tarasenko has struggled to find a permanent team. When he’s on the ice and the opponents have the puck, it’s almost like playing with four skaters. For a team that leaked goals like a sieve last season, I don’t think this is a good solution. Especially if he ends up on the same line as Patrick Kane—then it will leak even more. There is no natural replacement for Daniel Sprong, whom I wrote a few lines about. He brought great offensive upside without much cost. Cam Talbot had a good season with the Los Angeles Kings and will certainly stabilize the goalie situation for the Red Wings, but he won’t get nearly as much help from the defensemen as he did in L.A. I find it hard to see him putting up the same numbers this season. The signing I’m most optimistic about is Erik Gustafsson. I’ve always liked him and think he’s consistently underrated. However, with the loss of Walman and Gostisbehere, the defense doesn’t look better this season compared to last.

The Red Wings were synonymous with high-scoring games last season, and you can count on that again this year! This team is all offense. Debrincat, Larkin, and Raymond, along with Tarasenko, Kane, and an offensively strong group of defensemen, will score plenty of goals. The problem is, I believe they’ll leak even more goals at the back. In a league like the NHL, that rarely holds up—especially not in a potential playoff run. I’m not ruling out the possibility that the Red Wings could be involved in the playoff race, as there’s enough quality for that. However, with other teams around them improving and the Red Wings seemingly taking a step back, I think it’s asking too much to hope for the same point production as last season. If they make it to the playoffs, it won’t be due to the trades made this offseason. Sorry, Detroit, I remain skeptical.

6. Ottawa Senators

No one has likely missed the big news that this season we’ll be seeing Linus Ullmark in an Ottawa Senators jersey instead of Boston Bruins. A fantastic acquisition for the Senators, which clearly improves their chances of finally reaching the playoffs this season. Weak goaltending has been a major Achilles’ heel for Ottawa Senators over the past few years. Neither Anton Forsberg nor Joonas Korpisalo has delivered the consistency needed to provide security at the back. Ullmark’s arrival will hopefully change that. During his time with Boston, the Swede has been one of the league’s top goalies. Now, it remains to be seen if he can maintain that same level of play in a team that doesn’t have the same defensive strength as Boston. Nevertheless, it’s a signing that needed to be made. For a Senators team that’s been nearing a finished roster after several rebuilding years but hasn’t delivered on expectations, Ullmark represents hope. Last season, the team managed just 78 points, far below expectations. However, not all offseason moves have been equally positive.

What else has happened? In addition to Ullmark, David Perron, Michael Amadio, Noah Gregor, and Nick Jensen have joined the team. David Perron stands out as a solid signing. He’ll help bring some order to a forward group that will benefit from his experience. Several players have left: Mathieu Joseph, Dominik Kubalik, Parker Kelly, Mark Kastelic, Jakob Chychrun, Erik Brännström, and Joonas Korpisalo. While none of these names are particularly standout players, I believe many of them contributed significantly behind the scenes. Trading away Jakob Chychrun in exchange for Nick Jensen and a third-round pick in the 2026 draft is nothing short of a terrible deal. Jensen may be a defensively capable defenseman, but this trade makes little sense. I’m also not fond of the loss of Erik Brännström, as the Swedish defenseman has significant potential. Replacing Mathieu Joseph with Michael Amadio is also questionable—Joseph is both cheaper and better. Still, thanks to Ullmark’s arrival, we can summarize the Senators’ offseason as having boosted their playoff chances. However, with a weakened defensive corps and a thinner forward group, I remain somewhat pessimistic.

Ultimately, for the Senators to make the playoffs, it will likely come down to performances from the existing players. There’s still plenty of talent on the team. Ottawa has high hopes for Josh Norris, who, despite his young age, has already had multiple seasons derailed by injuries. Last season, he managed only 50 games, and the season before that, just eight. Alongside him in the top six, you’ll continue to find Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Claude Giroux. This is a talented group of players with significant offensive potential, especially Brady Tkachuk, who led the way last season with nearly 40 goals (37 goals). However, he needs to stay out of the penalty box—134 penalty minutes for a leading forward is far from optimal. The defensive group, which I previously praised, remains decent, but the departures of Chychrun and Brännström in exchange for Jensen and Kleven don’t strengthen my view of the team. For the Senators to make the playoffs, Ullmark will need to remain one of the league’s top goaltenders, and all key players must stay healthy. But I still feel it will be a tough battle.

5. Buffalo Sabres

“The team that never makes the playoffs.” Unfortunately, that has become a truth for the Buffalo Sabres, who have failed to reach the playoffs for 13 consecutive seasons, a league record. The question now is whether all the changes ahead of this season have improved the Sabres’ position. I think so, but whether it will be enough is another question.

As many NHL enthusiasts may already know, Jeff Skinner has left the club after six seasons, moving to the Edmonton Oilers. Swedish player Victor Olofsson has also departed, along with Zemgus Girgensons. Coming in are Ryan McLeod, Jason Zucker, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Beck Malenstyn, and Sam Lafferty. The incoming players may not appear as offensively capable, and that’s true. However, I believe Buffalo is on the right track here. They are clearly strengthening their bottom six and giving themselves better forward depth. While this comes at the expense of a slightly blunter offense, for a team that has had defensive issues for a long time, this is a logical approach. McLeod and Zucker will provide Buffalo with a solid third line, while there is still offensive potential in the top six. Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka, Alex Tuch, and Dylan Cozens were the four highest-scoring forwards for the team last season, and they all remain. Additionally, the Sabres have high hopes that 18-year-old Zack Benson will take another step forward after already playing a season in the NHL. 22-year-old Jack Quinn managed only 27 games last season but looked sharp, scoring nine goals and ten assists in those games. In other words, there are players developing from within, ensuring that the Sabres maintain offensive potential.

The Sabres' defense group is one of the league’s most intriguing. There’s no shortage of talent. Rasmus Dahlin was the team’s second-highest scorer last season, and despite being somewhat off his production from the previous season, he remains a top-tier defenseman. Alongside him is Owen Power, who, after two NHL seasons, is beginning to establish himself. Power, with his soft hands, combined with Dahlin, forms one of the more talented defensive pairings in the league. Last season, Buffalo also traded for Bowen Byram in exchange for Casey Mittelstadt. I wasn’t entirely sold on this trade, but Byram still has significant offensive upside. However, he desperately needs to improve his defensive play. The 23-year-old has yet to have a major breakout, but most would agree that his upside is considerable. Buffalo has a very young defensive group with plenty of talent. This makes them somewhat difficult to evaluate, as there is offensive potential, but defensively, there are weaknesses.

Overall, I’m optimistic about the changes made during the offseason. Buffalo should be seen as a team ready to seriously challenge for a playoff spot. However, it’s hard to ignore that there is still a gap in quality between them and the teams above. For the Sabres to break their “playoff curse,” they’ll need to maximize their performance and hope that their points total is enough for a wild card spot, as I find it difficult to see them securing a direct playoff position.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

There weren’t too many smiling faces when it was announced that club legend Steven Stamkos would no longer be wearing the blue and white this season. Instead, Jake Guentzel will take his place alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. I actually think this change will be for the better, at least in the long run. Stamkos’ production at five-on-five had started to decline, and with a sharpshooter like Guentzel, who is five years younger, Tampa buys itself a bit more time as a playoff contender.

Besides Guentzel, a few other players have been added. Cam Atkinson, Zemgus Girgensons, Ryan McDonagh, and J.J. Moser will be joining Tampa this season. Gone are Anthony Duclair, Tanner Jeannot, Mikhail Sergachev, and Matt Dumba, in addition to Stamkos. The biggest change is McDonagh coming in and Sergachev leaving. It will be a welcome reunion for McDonagh, who played for the Lightning from 2018/19 to 2021/22 and was part of their Stanley Cup-winning team. While he doesn’t bring the same offensive capability as Sergachev, he will stabilize the defense for a team that has been lacking defensively skilled players. Having Sergachev for as long as they did was a luxury the Lightning knew they couldn’t sustain. With that in mind, McDonagh is a solid solution.

Otherwise, much of the focus will remain on the same core group of players that have carried the team for several years. Nikita Kucherov is coming off his career-best season, with 144 points (!)—the highest in the league last year. His 44 goals and 100 assists are a testament to how vital he is to the team. Guentzel will likely thrive with all the brilliant passes the Russian will dish out throughout the season. Few players in hockey history have had such vision when setting up their teammates as Kucherov. Along with Brayden Point, the Tampa Bay Lightning will still have one of the league’s best top lines. In five-on-four situations, it’s no surprise that the Lightning was the best team in the league, with a power play efficiency of 28.6%, unmatched by anyone. However, behind the top line, the depth is thin. My criticism of the Lightning in recent years has been the lack of depth among the forwards. While Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Nicholas Paul may be somewhat underrated, Tampa no longer has the depth they had during their Stanley Cup years. It’s simply very top-heavy.

The defense is still led by Victor Hedman. He’s no longer young, but at 33, he remains one of the league’s best offensive defensemen. I suspect that J.J. Moser will become his new defensive partner, while McDonagh pairs with Erik Cernak. Whether this is optimal remains to be seen. Moser is not known for his defensive abilities. Fortunately, the Lightning still has a top-tier goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy, though he’s coming off a slightly weaker season. Nevertheless, his foundational skills are immense, and he remains one of the team’s most important players. He’ll likely continue to earn his paycheck, as the Lightning will keep pressing forward and scoring many goals again this season, while the defense won’t be the strongest. Last season, the team collected 98 points in the regular season, and I expect a similar outcome this season. They should make the playoffs, but once there, I think they’ll once again be exposed by their weak defense. It works in the regular season, but rarely in the playoffs.

3. Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins are coming off yet another strong season, finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference with 109 points. Impressive for a team that lost key players like Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Taylor Hall, to name a few. It was far from their record-setting season before, when they accumulated a historic 135 points—not surprising, as it will likely be a long time before we see any team come close to that production again. Nevertheless, there has been some movement ahead of this season, and it’s likely not for the better.

Joining the team are Elias Lindholm, Mark Kastelic, Nikita Zadorov, and Joonas Korpisalo. Departing are Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, James van Riemsdyk, Pat Maroon, Matt Grzelcyk, and Linus Ullmark. The latter means that Boston no longer has the best goaltending duo in the league. Instead, Joonas Korpisalo will fill the void left by Ullmark. This essentially means that Jeremy Swayman, who shared the role with Ullmark last season, will now be the clear starter. Swayman was the slightly better of the two last season and has grown into a top NHL goaltender. However, there will be a significant drop in quality when Korpisalo steps in instead. That said, it wasn’t surprising that Boston chose this path—they had to. It’s simply not sustainable to have two top-tier goalies on the same team; it becomes too expensive. In the forward group, it will be interesting to see if Elias Lindholm can live up to the massive contract he received (7 years, $7.75M AAV). He will take on the crucial role of centering the first line between Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak. It’s no easy task to replace Jake DeBrusk, who had been very solid in his role for Boston. With good offensive abilities and excellent defensive actions, combined with being much cheaper, the expectations are high for Lindholm. Now, the two players aren’t directly comparable—Lindholm is a center, while DeBrusk plays on the wing. But losing both DeBrusk and Danton Heinen for Lindholm feels like a downgrade, even if skilled center-forwards are hard to come by. What’s even more concerning is Lindholm’s weak season. To be fair, Calgary became much weaker, and he only played about 30 games in Vancouver, but with a total production of 44 points in 75 games, it’s unclear if he can live up to his contract.

Among the defensemen, Matt Grzelcyk has left for the Pittsburgh Penguins, while Nikita Zadorov has joined. I’m also skeptical about this contract. During his time in Calgary and Vancouver, he didn’t log many minutes for a defenseman. Most of his career has been spent in the third defensive pairing. Now, he’s expected to pair up with Charlie McAvoy, which makes me question how optimal this arrangement is. However, Boston seems to know what they wanted, and he might fit well in their system. But without Ullmark and with the players who have left, I think the Boston Bruins will struggle to match last season’s performance. It doesn’t help that Brad Marchand has reached the age of 36. Much will depend on whether Elias Lindholm performs well in his new role and if Swayman continues to excel. This team, which two years ago accumulated 135 points, is starting to thin out. If Boston reaches the 100-point mark, they should be very satisfied. They’ll likely make the playoffs, but once there, I suspect they’ll have difficulty competing with the top teams.

2. Florida Panthers

Now we've arrived at last year's Stanley Cup champions. The evaluation of them last season proved to be accurate, and their victory in the Atlantic Division yielded solid 7.50 odds. Ahead of this season, the team is more appropriately valued by the bookmakers. That said, there’s still plenty to discuss because, as usual, there has been movement even with this Stanley Cup-winning squad. Leaving Florida are Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Stenlund, Nick Cousins, Ryan Lomberg, Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz. As replacements, the team has brought in Jesper Boqvist, A.J. Greer, Tomas Nosek, Nate Schmidt, and Adam Boqvist. It’s clear that the incoming players are not sufficient to cover the losses. However, there are still reasons to be optimistic, as the core players that the team is built around have been retained.

The loss of Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson is perhaps the toughest challenge Florida will face. Montour is a legitimate top defenseman, and having him in the same defensive group as Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson was a luxury few teams could afford. The loss of Ekman-Larsson is easier to manage, but he had his best season in years with Florida. Replacing this duo with Adam Boqvist and Nate Schmidt leaves much to be desired for a team with ambitions to challenge for another Stanley Cup. The team remains strong with Forsling and Ekblad, but the depth behind them has taken a significant hit. In the forward group, the losses are not as severe. Tarasenko, who joined late in the season, will be hard to replace with his offensive upside. Kevin Stenlund was also incredibly useful for the Panthers, especially in penalty kills. It will be interesting to see if Jesper Boqvist can take another step forward in his career in this new environment. He was very good in Boston, despite the limited minutes he averaged. However, neither he, A.J. Greer, nor Tomas Nosek, who appear to form Florida’s new fourth line, can truly make up for the losses in the forward group.

Even the goaltending position has weakened. Anthony Stolarz, last season’s best backup goalie, left for the Toronto Maple Leafs. After some tough years with the Anaheim Ducks, the 30-year-old had a breakthrough season. It looks like the Florida Panthers will move forward with Spencer Knight, who previously served as the backup but has spent the last year in the AHL. This is a clear downgrade, even though they still have Bobrovsky. Despite all the losses, Florida can still field a competitive team. The top six forwards remain one of the best in the league, with the brilliant Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Bennett. The Panthers will undoubtedly be good again this year. However, it’s clear that the team has taken a hit during the offseason, especially among the defensemen. When they are still ranked as favorites in the division, I can’t help but place them behind the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have strengthened their roster over the summer, unlike the Panthers.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

Could this be the year I place the Toronto Maple Leafs at the top of the Atlantic Division and finally get it right? This is the third consecutive season I’ve picked them to finish first in the division. I haven’t done it just for fun. They have one of the best rosters in the league and have consistently racked up over 100 points season after season in the regular season. Often, it comes down to another team having an extraordinary season, or the Maple Leafs falling just short. Last season, it was primarily weak goaltending that hindered them. It didn’t help that the defense occasionally collapsed completely. Heading into this season, General Manager Brad Treliving has made the right moves to strengthen these areas. Yet another season where we put our faith in the “Leafs”!

Toronto has been active during the summer, making some solid signings. Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz are more than enough to make up for the losses of Tyler Bertuzzi, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Ilya Samsonov. Everyone knows Toronto can score goals. Auston Matthews netted a staggering 69 goals last season in the regular season, with a scoring rate of 0.85 goals per game. When he’s not getting the job done, there’s plenty of backup from the core of the Maple Leafs: William Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner. The quartet combined for 164 goals last season in the regular season. With that group intact, it’s not the offense that needed improvement. That’s why I’m very optimistic about the changes made to the defensive group. Chris Tanev needs no introduction—despite his age (34), he remains one of the league’s best defensive defensemen. Right now, he will be incredibly valuable to Toronto. Giving a 34-year-old a six-year contract may be debatable, but it’s a big plus for the defensive group regardless. The addition of Oliver Ekman-Larsson is also a much better option than both Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin, who were frankly terrible last season. Ekman-Larsson also brings offensive upside that neither of them could offer.

The decision to let go of Ilya Samsonov in favor of Anthony Stolarz is also a very sound move. Stolarz had his breakthrough in Florida last season, with outstanding underlying stats that boost Toronto’s goaltending rating. They also remain strong with Joseph Woll, who grew into the starting goalie role last season. The duo feels stable, and I believe Woll will thrive as the starting goalie from the beginning of this season. With the best group of defensemen they’ve had in a long time, there’s reason to be optimistic and give Toronto another vote of confidence this season. The loss of Tyler Bertuzzi, however, is worth noting, as they haven’t managed to replace him. But prioritizing the defense and the goalie position was the right approach. The forward group is already top-notch, and it was the defense that needed the upgrade it has now received. I consider the Maple Leafs to be serious contenders for the Stanley Cup!

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