Tip: Sharpness meets depth as Tampa Bay Lightning seeks revenge against Dallas Stars

It was not a fun Saturday evening for Tampa Bay Lightning who were humiliated by Dallas Stars in an 8-1 loss. Stars got to work right away in the first period, and after 8 minutes the score was 3-0 on the jumbotron. Thereafter, Lightning tried to force the issue, but it was not their match, and instead they continued to concede goals. It's an exciting clash with several interesting layers to delve into, and of course, we also land on a betting tip.

Sharpness Meets Depth

It's a bit of an oversimplification for me to say that Tampa Bay Lightning is just a team consisting of 4-5 skilled offensive players who are supposed to carry the team, but as I mentioned before the season, Lightning has become increasingly dependent on the first line to carry the team. However, there are no novices in Lightning's first line; Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos. When these three gentlemen are also backed up by a lively Victor Hedman, it's not hard to understand why Lightning still manages to compete for playoff spots. Kucherov has also been absolutely brilliant at the start of the season, with 15 goals and 25 assists placing him at the top of the NHL points leaderboard. The problem is obviously not the forward production, in fact, Tampa Bay Lightning has scored the fourth most goals in the league this season. The problem, however, is that they are conceding a lot of goals, with a total of 93 goals conceded, only San Jose Sharks have allowed more.

only San Jose Sharks have allowed more goals

When these two combatants clashed last Saturday, Tampa was obviously exposed by Dallas's offense. Unlike Lightning, Stars have a much wider forward group where everything doesn't have to go through a top line. Stars are very balanced and play much more structured hockey that often focuses on setting the defense. That said, there are fine sharpshooters who always pose a threat to Stars' opponents. Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz were last season one of the league's best first lines and don't look much worse this year. In addition, the addition of Matt Duchene has further broadened one of the league's already best forward groups, add to that a hot Wyatt Johnson and experienced Tyler Seguin, etc., and Stars are an obvious contender for the Stanley Cup.

Few Injuries and Andrei Vasilevskiy

Both teams come to the match with virtually no injuries. Conor Sheary continues to be listed as long-term injured in Tampa, otherwise both teams are in good shape. Andrei Vasilevskiy recently returned to play after missing the first 20+ rounds of the season. In Vasilevskiy's absence, Jonas Johansson took on the role as first-choice goalkeeper. Given the circumstances, he did okay, Lightning allows a lot of chances and even though they have actually conceded more goals than what xGA (expected goals against) indicates, he can't be blamed for everything. However, in his nineteen matches, about six more pucks went in than the underlying figures suggest. So what does it mean for Lightning to get their superstar back in goal? It means a lot, of course. Few teams are probably as dependent on their first-choice goalkeeper as Tampa is. Vasilevskiy is still among the top goalkeepers in the league and is a solid last line of defense for Lightning, having won many matches on his own for the team. However, last Saturday he was replaced after conceding 6 goals from 25 shots. Even though he is likely to be as eager for revenge as the rest of the team, I think the task awaiting Lightning suits them as poorly today as it did last Saturday.

Betting Tip and Conclusion

The home team is likely to be very eager for revenge after the last thrashing. But such types of factors are too soft to count on. For those of you who follow me on platform X, you saw that I played Dallas Stars to win the match in regular time last Saturday, and I intend to continue leaning towards Dallas this time. Stars' forward depth is very ill-suited for Tampa Bay Lightning to face. The defense is simply not well enough equipped to withstand when Dallas rolls with their lines and pressures Tampa in their own zone. However, I have great respect for the first line in Tampa and if Kucherov & Co. have a good day at the office, we should never rule out that they can compensate for much of the team's other shortcomings. Therefore, I take a somewhat cautious approach when they now clash at Amalie Arena.

The bet will be Dallas Stars +0 @ -103 (money back in case of a draw) on bet365!