Your Guide to NHL 2023/24: Atlantic Division

Each team receives a rating for each part of the team; goalkeepers, defensemen, and forwards. The overall rating determines the team rankings. To prevent the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of discussing each individual player that contributes to the rating. To determine the rating I've compiled, I use the same model that was the basis for simulations in previous seasons. However, I'd like to remind everyone that, while models are a helpful tool, they are just ONE tool in a large toolbox. The strength of models is best realized when combined with a keen hockey eye and an understanding of probabilities. This combination forms the basis of the betting tips I provide.

Previewing NHL 2023/24.

This season, there have been significant changes in some teams, and as always, the goal is to get the preseason analysis right to set oneself up well for the season. The challenge is, as always, to understand how to evaluate new players coming into the teams, last season's performances, and much more. This year's edition of the NHL seems to me to be really exciting. The first impression, as well as deeper digging, indicates that the league is more balanced than it has been in a long time. Several of the top teams from last season have been somewhat weakened, and the teams from below are closing the gap.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs, who scored 111 points in the regular season last year and advanced past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades, chose to part ways with General Manager Kyle Dubas. Brad Treliving took over as the new GM on May 31. At the top of his to-do list was renewing the contract with star player Auston Matthews, who was nearing the end of his existing deal. In August, Maple Leafs announced that they had agreed with Matthews on a four-year contract worth 53 million dollars, making him the NHL's highest paid player.

Besides Matthews, the team still retains several of its major stars; Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, and William Nylander. However, we might see William Nylander in a new role this season, as he has been trying out as a center for Toronto during the preseason. To replace the loss of Micheal Bunting, Tyler Bertuzzi will take a spot next to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in the first line, not bad linemates for the 28-year-old Canadian. Toronto has also brought in Max Domi, whose father Tie Domi, was a crowd favorite in Toronto from 1995 to 2006. Last season, Domi delivered 56 points (20+36) in 70 games for the Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars.

We will also see another Swede in Toronto this season. John Klingberg is planned to play among Toronto's top four defensemen, joining Morgan Reilly, T.J. Brodie, and Jake McCabe. He will contribute with offensive skills, but for the Maple Leafs’ sake, we hope he can deliver better in defense, something that was disastrously bad at times in Anaheim and Minnesota last season. In goal, Ilya Samsonov continues to be the first choice. The 26-year-old Russian took on the role of the starting goalie last season and did admirably. In a division where both Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins have lost a lot of quality, Maple Leafs have a good chance to emerge as division winners. However, I have chosen to bet on another competitor that I think has been valued a bit wildly. Maple Leafs are still the favorites in my book, even though I won't be placing a bet on them this time.

2. Florida Panthers

The Panthers narrowly made it to the playoffs via a wildcard spot. Many expected Boston to swiftly eliminate them in the first round, but Florida had other plans. After defeating the Bruins 4-3 in the series, they breezed past Toronto 4-1 and followed it up by sweeping Carolina Hurricanes 4-0. A truly impressive performance! As both I and my colleagues warned, Florida was hardly a "mediocre" wildcard team, as they amply demonstrated. However, in the finals, Vegas Golden Knights proved too formidable, and they ultimately fell 4-1 in the series. The Panthers are now preparing for a new season, hoping to make an impact once more, although a lot has changed since the finals a few months ago.

Let's start with the less exciting news. The team will have to do without two of their star defensemen at the beginning of the season. Aaron Ekblad is expected to return at the start of 2024, as is Brandon Montour. These are two crucial cogs in the defensive lineup that the Panthers will miss during the first half of the season. I wanted to start with this as it significantly impacts the Panthers. Replacing Brandon Montour, who scored 73 points in 80 regular-season games, will be impossible with the current roster. We will see Oliver Ekman-Larsson in Florida this season, and Niko Mikkola will also strengthen the defense. Once Ekblad and Montour return, Florida will boast an impressive defensive line, but until then, they'll have to make do as best as they can.

In the forward group, most of the lineup remains intact. Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Carter Verhaeghe still feature among the top six. They will also be joined by Evan Rodrigues. Florida's forward group is still incredibly strong and one of the best in the league. Matthew Tkachuk was utterly brilliant last season, and surrounded by such excellent company, the Panthers' offensive is unlikely to face any problems.

Sergei Bobrovsky is still in Florida and will be guarding the goal again this season. One would be hard-pressed to find a more temperamental goalie. When he's in the zone, he's one of the world's best, but when he hits a slump, it can be bottomless. His inconsistency marked the regular season, but he was a rock for the Panthers during the playoffs. If he can build on that, they have a reliable goalie to depend on. Overall, the rating is slightly diminished as Florida will enter the premiere with a depleted defense. If they can return faster than anticipated, or if the forward group and Bobrovsky can carry the team in the meantime, the Panthers have the ingredients to go far in the playoffs again. Could the Panthers be this season's dark horse? They’ve shown their capability in the playoffs. They are by no means favorites to win the division, but I have a couple of bets on them, as they are undervalued by the betting companies.

3. Boston Bruins

Last year’s regular season giants, Boston Bruins, who amassed a staggering 135 points, suffered a heavy defeat in the playoff's first round against the Florida Panthers, a crushing blow after a record-breaking season. All the ingredients were in place, with players like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci willing to sign one last season for far less than they were worth. Heading into this season, there has been a significant reshuffle, and we are unlikely to see 135 points again for many years to come. So, what can we expect from a thoroughly revamped Boston?

Gone are Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Tyler Bertuzzi, Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, and Dmitry Orlov. Those are significant names to try to replace. Naturally, it becomes instantly impossible to fully compensate for players like Bergeron and Krejci who signed very favorable contracts for Boston's sake. The Bruins have, of course, attempted to fill the gaps as best they can. James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Geekie, Milan Lucic, Jesper Boqvist, Patrick Brown, and Kevin Shattenkirk are the new faces we’ll get to know in a Boston jersey this season. To put it succinctly, everything will revolve around the remaining players. The newcomers are miles away from replacing the losses over the summer. Luckily for Boston, players like David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Linus Ullmark are substantial enough that they must still be seen as a challenger for the division title.

It’s easy to fixate on all the losses Boston has suffered ahead of the season, and indeed, with the current roster, they will never manage to replicate last year’s feat. However, this team is still good. In goal, Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark will continue to be the first choice beside Jeremy Swayman, one of the league's best goaltending duos last season. In front of them, except for Dmitry Orlov, it's the same defensive lineup that will help them keep the net clean. Shattenkirk won't be able to replace Orlov, but he has plenty of experience, and with the remaining defenders from last season, Boston still has one of the league’s best defensive setups.

David Pastrnak was only beaten by Connor McDavid in the number of goals scored last season. When he wasn’t stepping up, Brad Marchand, Pavel Zacha, and Jake Debrusk filled in. Even though there isn’t as much star power around Boston’s forward group, they still have one of the world’s sharpest finishers in Pastrnak, who is well-supported. A potential problem, however, could be filling the center position, a role both Bergeron and Krejci held. Those are big skates for Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle to fill. Beyond that, can someone step up and take on parts of the huge responsibility that Bergeron had in the Bruins?

In sum, this team is a weaker version of last year’s build but still a very good hockey team. They should certainly make the playoffs, and once there, things can only go better than last season, right?

4. Tampa Bay Lightnings

The team from Tampa has been a force to be reckoned with in the NHL in recent years, synonymous with a guaranteed playoff spot. Last season, they once again made it to the playoffs but fell in the first round against the highly skilled opposition, Toronto Maple Leafs. The key players on the team are not getting any younger, and there has been some movement ahead of the upcoming season. The question is, are the Tampa Bay Lightning still a team that's just going to secure a playoff spot, or will they start facing serious challenges?

We still recognize the core of the players. Everything will more or less revolve around Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. On that front, the Lightning still stands firm, even though Hedman and Stamkos have crossed the age of 30 by a few years. If hockey was only played with one line and a pair of defensemen, Tampa would still look formidable. The problem is that there are three lines and two pairs of defensemen to consider, and that’s where the issues begin. Already in last season's guide, I wrote that Tampa was looking very thin beyond the first line, and I think that trend continues. Alex Killorn, Ross Colton, Patrick Maroon, Corey Perry, and defenseman Ian Cole have moved on. The Lightning have brought in Tyler Motte, Luke Glendening, Logan Brown, Conor Sheary as forwards, and Calvin de Haan as a defenseman. This doesn’t exactly scream quality, and although a necessary rejuvenation is happening, we’re not talking about young super talents either.

In goal, Tampa Bay will still have one of the sharpest goalies in the league, compensating for a lot. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still a goalie who can single-handedly win games for the Lightning. The defensemen in front of the good Vasilevskiy still maintain a decent level. Much, of course, revolves around Victor Hedman, who continues to be one of the league’s best defensemen. But Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev are also top-class. Overall, however, it’s a weaker Tampa Bay Lightning, where the star players look set to carry an even heavier burden. The quality of the top players in Tampa is still so high that they should secure a playoff spot. However, should injuries begin to accumulate for the heavily matched core of players in the Lightning, they are a team that could quickly fall behind in a competitive conference where the margins are small. I no longer think the Lightning can be viewed as a guaranteed playoff team, especially with the hard-chasing Ottawa, Buffalo, and Detroit behind, trending in a positive direction.

5. Ottawa Senators

As expected, the Ottawa Senators took a step in the right direction last season and improved their point tally. However, it was not enough to secure a wildcard spot, although the team was in contention for a good while. Heading into this season, we will find the seasoned Vladimir Tarasenko in the Canadian capital and hopefully, a healthy Josh Norris. Norris was coming off a fantastic 2021/2022 season before injuries ruined his entire last season. With him back and an offensively talented Tarasenko joining the squad, the Senators look to be taking another step in the right direction. They have also brought in Dominik Kubalik, adding more depth to the forward group this season. However, not only have new players been brought in, but the Senators also released Alex Debrincat to division rivals Detroit Red Wings. The loss of him should not be a significant issue to address with Norris returning.

Among the defensemen, there have been no changes, and for a good reason, it was perhaps the team’s strongest unit last season. Players like Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, and Jake Sanderson are of high calibre for the league. It looks like Chabot and Chychrun will act as the first defensive pair, and there is a really nice offensive upside there. On the goaltending front, Joonas Korpisalo has joined from Columbus/LA Kings, and he brings a good season with him. He should be a worthy replacement for Cam Talbot. As the backup goalie, the Senators still have Anton Forsberg available, who also comes from an approved season. Not the sharpest goaltending duo in the league, but not the weakest either.

This is an Ottawa Senators team that continues in the right direction, and they should be considered as a team that can snatch a Wild Card spot. If everything falls into place nicely, they have enough upside to take a direct spot. They showed it already last season, and this year’s edition looks somewhat stronger, especially with Norris back in action. With players like Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, and Drake Batherson, the team definitely possesses the edge that is required.

6. Buffalo Sabers

Oh, how entertaining it was to watch the Buffalo Sabres last season! Many of the Sabres' games provided high-level entertainment, and they were not far off from clinching their first playoff spot in 12 years. Tage Thompson led the way, treating us to several exquisite goals—no shortage of options since he scored 47 of them. However, he wasn’t the only one being dangerous in front of the goal. The first line, consisting of Thompson, Skinner, and Tuch, accounted for a total of 118 goals during the regular season. Consequently, as a whole, the Sabres scored plenty of goals, with only the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers scoring more. As one might understand, offense wasn’t an issue for Buffalo, but their defense left much to be desired. Despite scoring 293 goals, the team conceded 297, making a playoff berth a challenging endeavor.

There haven’t been any dramatic changes to the Sabres ahead of this season. However, the team brought in Devon Levi to accompany Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal. To be completely honest, it’s not an exciting goaltending duo for a team that already had significant leaks last season. The seasoned Craig Anderson has retired, leaving big shoes to fill for the rookie Devon Levi, who is an untested card. Luukkonen performed reasonably well, and hopefully, he can step up a level, as it hardly feels like the Sabres have playoff-caliber goalies on hand.

To stabilize the defense somewhat, the team has brought in Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton to accompany the younger defensemen. These seem like sound recruitments, especially since both defensemen have their strengths in the defensive zone. The forward group remains the same, and one can hardly complain if goals are what you're after. Buffalo is likely to offer a plethora of exciting matches this season as well, and a playoff berth doesn’t seem impossible, although it will likely be borderline. If they manage to make the playoffs, their porous defense is likely to struggle against more qualified opposition.

7. Detroit Red Wings

Here we have quite a bit to sink our teeth into as Steve Yzerman has been very active during the break, bringing in a host of new names. We'll start with the forwards where Alex Debrincat, JT Compher, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong are new faces in the red and white jersey this season. DeBrincat will undoubtedly contribute a lot offensively with his sharp abilities. After five seasons in Chicago, he made a stop last season at the Ottawa Senators where he notched 27 goals and assisted 39 times; the relatively young American is a forward that maintains a good NHL level. Daniel Sprong was an unexpectedly effective goalscorer for the Seattle Kraken last season and is well suited as a third/fourth liner who can act as a "hidden threat."

There have also been significant changes among the defensemen. Jeff Petry, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Justin Holl will be joining Moritz Seider, Jake Walman, and Ben Chiarot this season. Necessary changes, as the defensive end was not the Red Wings' strongest unit last season, it was directly weak. Now, Petry, Gostisbehere, and Holl are not exactly youngsters, and they have the best part of their careers behind them. However, they will bring a lot of experience, and behind a fine first defensive pair of Moritz Seider and Jake Walman, they will likely stabilize a lot. In goal, we will still find Ville Husso, who is joined this season by the experienced James Reimer, forming a decent goaltending duo on paper.

The big question is whether all these changes will pan out well enough for Detroit to be able to challenge for a playoff spot. In a highly competitive conference, I believe it will be difficult. The team that Yzerman is putting on the ice at the beginning of October is the best team Detroit has had in many years, but there are many question marks. For the Red Wings to challenge, players like DeBrincat will need to score upwards of 40+ goals, Lucas Raymond will need to have a breakout season, and other players will need to have everything clicking. I'm not counting out the Red Wings from reaching the playoffs, but many changes need to pan out well, and the teams around Detroit look strong.

8. Montreal Canadiens

As expected, last season was not a joyful one for the Montreal Canadiens, and there isn't much to suggest that this year's edition will offer much more. The younger core of players in Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Kirby Dach all performed okay without making a significant impression. I'd like to believe that there is another gear in this generation expected to carry the Canadiens in the coming years, but it remains uncertain. There are also players filling in the back lines; Rafaël Harvey-Pinard and Juraj Slafkovsky are younger talents that Montreal hopes will bring more to the table this season.

Behind the young stars, there is no shortage of experience, but there is a noticeable lack of quality. Mike Matheson is coming from a good season with 34 points in 48 games and proved to be a decent weapon from the blue line last season. If he can stay fit and continue on this trajectory, there might be another player with unexpected upside. The feeling is that a number of players suddenly need to shine to prevent Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Kirby Dach from having to carry the entire team. However, the risk is high that Montreal might end up at the bottom of the division again this season. On paper, many names ring a bell; Josh Anderson, Sean Monahan, Brendan Gallagher, and Joel Armia have plenty of experience but have also seen better days.

We must remind ourselves that the Canadiens are in the midst of a generational shift and are rebuilding from the ground up. It will likely be a few seasons before we see a formidable Montreal team that can challenge for playoff spots again. For now, we'll have to be content to see if Caufield can stay healthy, and if Suzuki can become the pivotal franchise player that Montreal is hoping for.

My betting tips for the 2023/24 season in the Atlantic Division