Tip: Nashville Predators visit Tampa Bay Lightning in the season's first match!

It's time, at 5:30 PM ET the season's first match takes place when the Nashville Predators visit Amalie Arena in Tampa. These are two teams that have seen a lot happen over the summer and are clashing in the opening match.

A lot has happened in Nashville

There are many players we saw starting for the Predators a year ago who are no longer in the squad. Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm, Nino Niederreiter, Tanner Jeannot, and Matt Duchene, who all played for the Predators last season, are no longer with the organization. Instead, the team has brought in players like Ryan O'Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, and Luke Schenn to fill the gaps. On paper, there's no denying that the Predators look weaker this year. I’ll get back to why I don’t think this is a problem in this particular match, but they will likely struggle to challenge for the playoffs.

However, they still have one of the league's best goalkeepers in Juuse Saros, who will continue to win matches for Nashville on his own. They also still have a really nice defensive lineup with the likes of Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie, and Ryan McDonagh - hardly any average joes. Especially Josi is still considered one of the league’s best defensemen.

Even though the forward group is weaker this year, quality still exists. Filip Forsberg remains, who, despite only playing 50 games last season, came fourth in the internal points league with his 19+23. Thomas Novak is also still there, having had a breakthrough season with 43 points in 51 matches. It will be exciting to see if he can build on that excellent past season. There are also several forwards whose greatest strength lies in defense, something I think characterizes the Predators even more than before. This should spontaneously become a team that will be tough to score against. Add to that a Forsberg who hopefully remains fit, an experienced Ryan O'Reilly, and a Thomas Novak with upside, and they should be able to challenge a depleted Tampa Bay.

What happens when Andrei Vasilevskiy is gone?

The big topic of conversation has become that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will be missing for 8-10 weeks after undergoing back surgery. By pure coincidence, I talked in our NHL review about how crucial it is for the Lightning that Vasilevskiy stays fit, as Tampa becomes a completely different team without him on the ice. The one trying to fill those impossibly big shoes will be Jonas Johansson, who over the past four seasons has managed to play 35 NHL games. Unfortunately, not with the best numbers. Vasilevskiy has not only been one of the league’s top goaltenders for several seasons, but he is also, along with a handful of key players in Tampa Bay Lightning, directly decisive for whether the Lightning are seen as a playoff team or not.

As I wrote about in my Atlantic Division guide, the Lightning to a large extent stands or falls with Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Behind the first line, which is one of the league’s better ones, it looks very thin, which is also the case behind Victor Hedman. The exception is Mikhail Sergachev. With the loss of Vasilevskiy, it is not unreasonable to believe that this is the push that knocks the Lightning out of the playoffs.

Conclusion and prediction

The market has of course had time to react to the news about Vasilevskiy for a while now. However, I still think there is some value left in the away team for this match. As I wrote above, it’s a weakened Nashville Predators this season, but as I also wrote, I think it matters less in this particular match. Tampa Bay is without their guiding star Vasilevskiy, who creates security at the back and instills a calm that the Lightning need more than ever when the "bottom six" looks weaker than it has in a very long time. The Predators at least give the impression of being solid at the back and with a couple of sharp players forward who will challenge Johansson in the goal, I’m not at all attracted to the Tampa side. Many of the better NHL models soon consider the teams nearly equivalent. I am inclined to agree. Even before the news about Vasilevskiy, I believed the Lightning would have a hard time reaching the playoffs, with him gone for 8-10 weeks, I believe it becomes extremely difficult.

I’m betting on Nashville Predators ML (moneyline) at +145 with bet365