Your guide to the 4 Nations Face-Off: They're winning the tournament!

The NHL 4 Nations Face-Off marks the first tournament since the 2016 World Cup where all participating countries can showcase their NHL stars. With NHL players already confirmed to participate in the 2026 Milan Olympics, this four-nation tournament is seen as an important warm-up for the prestigious championship. In the guide below, I break down the rosters, analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses, and, of course, share a few well-considered betting tips!

FAQ

Schedule

Wednesday, February 12, 8:00 PM: Canada vs. Sweden (Bell Centre, Montreal)
Thursday, February 13, 8:00 PM: USA vs. Finland (Bell Centre, Montreal)
Saturday, February 15, 1:00 PM: Finland vs. Sweden (Bell Centre, Montreal)
Saturday, February 15, 8:00 PM: USA vs. Canada (Bell Centre, Montreal)
Monday, February 17, 1:00 PM: Canada vs. Finland (TD Garden, Boston)
Monday, February 17, 8:00 PM: Sweden vs. USA (TD Garden, Boston)
Thursday, February 20, 8:00 PM: Final (TD Garden, Boston)

Finland's Roster - 4th

Goalies

Juuse Saros
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Kevin Lankinen

Defensemen
Miro Heiskanen - Niko Mikkola
Esa Lindell - Rasmus Ristolainen
Olli Maatta - Juuso Valimaki
Extra: Jani Hakanpaa

Forwards
Mikael Granlund - Aleksander Barkov - Mikko Rantanen
Artturi Lehkonen - Sebastian Aho - Patrik Laine
Teuvo Teravainen - Roope Hintz - Kaapo Kakko
Eetu Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Erik Haula
Extra: Joel Armia

No finesse players here! Or are there? Finland's roster is rightfully ranked last in the tournament by sportsbooks. However, I suspect many are only seeing Finland's capable first and second lines and a world-class goalie in Saros, while overlooking some hidden gems. This is not a team to underestimate, as there is quality here despite their low ranking. Finns are also known for their sacrificial play, giving 110% in every situation. So, watch out!

Only Beaten by the USA

Let’s start with the obvious: Finland has the tournament’s second-best goalie behind Hellebuyck from Team USA, Juuse Saros. After a middling season last year, it seems some have forgotten that Saros is among the NHL’s elite goalies and has been for quite some time. For several seasons, he has carried the Nashville Predators on his shoulders, and this year he has bounced back, looking more like his old self. If Saros is in top form for the tournament, he will surely give Hellebuyck a run for his money in the battle for the tournament's best goalie. However, Finland lacks the depth that Sweden, for example, has. The options behind Saros are not appealing, even though both UPL and Lankinen are having decent seasons with their respective teams.

Finland's Achilles' heel will be their defense. Beyond Heiskanen and Lindell, the outlook isn't great. While Mikkola can defend and Ristolainen can shine in his best moments, none of the other defensemen, apart from Heiskanen and maybe Lindell, would likely make the roster of Sweden, the USA, or Canada. That said, Finland's defensemen are not incapable. It's a defensively competent group that, together with a hardworking forward lineup, will play sacrificially and be physically tough to face. However, they may struggle to keep up when players like McDavid, MacKinnon, and others come charging in full speed. Saros's performance in goal will be critical to Finland's success in this tournament.

Strong Top Line

The Finns have an intriguing group of forwards that I don't think are far behind Sweden's. Most notably, they can field a first and second line that can undoubtedly match Sweden. Aleksander Barkov, who will center the top line, is nothing less than one of the world’s absolute best hockey players. I would go so far as to say he is arguably the most complete forward in the NHL. His ability to excel in all areas of the ice is astounding at his best. Next to him, he’ll likely have Mikko Rantanen from the Colorado Avalanche, a player who hardly needs an introduction. In the past two seasons, Rantanen has scored 104 and 105 points, respectively, and is on pace to surpass 100 points again this season. Finland’s top six will also feature Sebastian Aho, who regularly centers the Carolina Hurricanes’ first line. Another deadly offensive weapon, Aho has scored 36 or more goals in each of the last three seasons. Patrik Laine, who has found his stride again, has been scoring prolifically for the Montreal Canadiens and will likely be a key player in Finland’s power play. Roope Hintz of the Dallas Stars is another highly skilled goal-scorer who has been finding his form. Mikael Granlund and Artturi Lehkonen are experienced veterans who have been here before and know what it takes to make the difference in tight games.

Is the Bottom Six Too Weak?

The question is whether the depth behind the top lines is too thin. A potential fourth line with Luostarinen and Lundell might be overlooked by many, which could be dangerous. Lundell is somewhat of a "Barkov Junior," highly competent across the ice and regularly plays with Luostarinen on the same line for the Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers. This kind of chemistry should not be underestimated. We’ll also see Kakko and Teravainen, with the former finally getting back on track after being traded to the Seattle Kraken. Teravainen, often forgotten, is on pace for his best season in years with a struggling Chicago Blackhawks team. A third line featuring Teravainen, Kakko, and Hintz is far from weak. My analysis of Finland’s bottom six is that it’s better than many assume. Still, I believe Sweden can field a stronger third and fourth line, which ultimately makes the difference when ranking the forward groups.

Sweden's Roster - 3rd

Goalies

Jacob Markström
Filip Gustavsson
Linus Ullmark

Defensemen

Victor Hedman - Rasmus Dahlin
Gustav Forsling - Erik Karlsson
Mattias Ekholm - Jonas Brodin
Extra: Rasmus Andersson

Forwards Filip Forsberg - Elias Pettersson - William Nylander
Jesper Bratt - Mika Zibanejad - Adrian Kempe
William Karlsson - Joel Eriksson Ek - Lucas Raymond
Gustav Nyquist - Elias Lindholm - Viktor Arvidsson
Extra: Leo Carlsson

Let’s take a closer look at Team Sweden and the roster selected by Sam Hallam for the tournament. As expected, Sweden’s greatest strength lies in their impressive defensive lineup. Victor Hedman needs no introduction; he continues to be one of the NHL’s best-performing defensemen. I’d love to see him paired with Rasmus Dahlin, who has really come into his own and remains the Buffalo Sabres’ brightest defensive star. This duo would make a strong first defensive pairing with significant offensive potential.

Is Karlsson a Liability?

There has been much debate about Erik Karlsson, especially after former national team coach Garpenlöv commented that he shouldn’t be included in the roster. The ensuing discussion was highly polarized. Those of us who follow the NHL closely know how heavily criticized Karlsson has been, not least by his own team, with talk of the Penguins wanting to offload his contract. The reason is simple: he hasn’t performed well enough since joining the Penguins, neither this season nor last. However, Karlsson has started to show glimpses of his old self with strong performances in December, which he has followed up with solid play in January. Offensively, he remains a force to be reckoned with, but his weak defensive play has been the source of criticism.

It’s fair to be critical of that aspect of his game, because when he isn’t delivering offensively, he unfortunately becomes a defensive liability. Not everything is about scoring points, which some of his blind defenders seem to forget. Regardless, Hallam has the option to pair him with Forsling or Brodin to balance out Karlsson’s weaknesses. Both are strong defensively and should be able to neutralize any issues.

It’s fair to be critical of that aspect of his game, because when he isn’t delivering offensively, he unfortunately becomes a defensive liability.

Overall, I believe Sweden’s defensive lineup is second only to the USA’s phenomenal blue line. Sweden is undoubtedly better than Finland and even edges out Canada in this regard. Where I also think Sweden outperforms Canada is in goal. Sweden has three capable goaltenders to choose from: Jacob Markström, Linus Ullmark, and Filip Gustavsson. I struggle to see a clear No. 1, 2, or 3 here. However, with Ullmark injured and his prognosis uncertain, it seems likely that Markström and Gustavsson will compete for the starting role. Whatever Hallam decides, there are no wrong choices. If I were to speculate, I’d say Jacob Markström will ultimately get the nod. Personally, I hope Gustavsson gets the chance, as his performances for the Minnesota Wild this season have been a key reason for their success. He also has the best underlying stats of the trio this season. While Sweden won’t have the best or even the second-best goalie in the tournament, the level will still be high regardless of who starts in net.

Is the Offense Enough?

I’m not saying we don’t have star power—because we do—but we don’t come close to matching the firepower of the USA or Canada. And yes, I say 'we'—I am Swedish, after all! In fact, I don’t rate our forward group much higher than Finland’s. But let’s start with the positives. Filip Forsberg, Elias Pettersson, and William Nylander stand out as leading forwards for their respective NHL teams. The reality, however, is that none of them can match the absolute best that the USA, Canada, or even Finland put on the ice in their top lines.

Behind this trio, we find players like Jesper Bratt and Adrian Kempe, with Bratt especially standing out thanks to his consistent production with the New Jersey Devils. Exactly how good Bratt is without Jack Hughes alongside him is less clear, but he plays at a high level and is consistently underrated. We also shouldn’t forget Lucas Raymond, who leads the scoring for the Detroit Red Wings and is on track for a career-best season.

Further down, we have some defensively skilled forwards in William Karlsson and Joel Eriksson Ek, who should fit well in a grinding third line focused on shutting down opponents. However, there are significant question marks around the form of Mika Zibanejad, who is having a disastrous season with the New York Rangers, and Elias Lindholm, who has looked uninspired in Boston Bruins colors.

Sweden’s forward group isn’t bad, but it is undeniably mediocre. While we have talented players, we lack counterparts to McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Rantanen, or Barkov. At the same time, there’s quality throughout the lineup. Hopefully, players like Zibanejad and Lindholm can have strong performances in January to build momentum for the tournament.

A soft factor, but one worth considering, is that teams like the USA and Canada, stacked with superstar talent, have many players unaccustomed to third- or fourth-line roles. This might ultimately be a non-factor, but it could allow Sweden to find harmony in their line combinations more easily than the favorites. We also have the advantage of a favorable schedule, facing Finland in the second game when they are playing back-to-back after a match against the USA the night before—a crucial factor.

Canada’s Roster - 2nd

Goalies

Jordan Binnington
Adin Hill
Sam Montembeault

Defensemen

Devon Toews - Cale Makar
Josh Morrissey - Alex Pietrangelo
Travis Sanheim - Shea Theodore
Extra: Colton Parayko

Forwards

Sam Reinhart - Connor McDavid - Mitch Marner
Brad Marchand - Sidney Crosby - Nathan MacKinnon
Brandon Hagel - Brayden Point - Mark Stone
Seth Jarvis - Anthony Cirelli - Travis Konecny
Extra: Sam Bennett

McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, and Crosby on the same team—is that even allowed? All joking aside, it’s almost absurd to imagine the kind of power play Canada can field in this tournament, not to mention their top lines in 5v5 play. Canada boasts some of the world’s absolute best offensive players.

McDavid and MacKinnon hardly need an introduction. Both are capable of scoring 140–150 points in an NHL season, something that seems almost impossible. Behind this superstar duo, we find the ever-reliable Sidney Crosby, still performing at a high level for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Canada also has Sam Reinhart, who was instrumental in the Florida Panthers’ Stanley Cup victory last summer, and Mitch Marner, a creative force headed for a career-best season.

Brayden Point, often overlooked in this company, is among the league leaders in goals this season. Add in the experienced Mark Stone, who has won it all and knows how to deliver in clutch moments—he’ll likely feature on the third line. Talk about offensive depth!

Goaltending Problems for Canada?

While Canada has an incredible offense that will be nearly impossible to stop, most would agree they have weaknesses. In goal, they have the weakest starting goalie in the tournament, Jordan Binnington, and the depth behind him isn’t much better. Neither Hill nor Montembeault are top-tier goaltenders. Goaltending could become a real problem for Canada unless Binnington finds his form just in time for the tournament.

Sharp Enough to Compensate for Weak Spots

Canada’s defense isn’t bad by any means, but it falls short of the quality in their forward group. As I mentioned earlier, I rate Canada’s defense slightly below Sweden’s. The standout, of course, is Cale Makar. The Colorado defenseman is one of the world’s best and is undoubtedly in the race for another Norris Trophy this season. He will be a huge asset for Canada’s power play and has a great dynamic with MacKinnon to build on.

It’s also a big plus that he’ll have his defensive partner from Colorado, Devon Toews, alongside him. Together, they form arguably the NHL’s best defensive pairing. While Toews can contribute offensively, his defensive strengths are what really shine. Josh Morrissey continues to impress with Winnipeg Jets, producing around one point per game while remaining defensively solid. Canada also has Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo, a duo that already plays together in Vegas and performs at a high level there.

However, Canada’s choice to include Travis Sanheim and Colton Parayko over someone like Evan Bouchard, who has had a breakout season with Edmonton Oilers, is questionable. They likely wanted to balance the lineup with more defensive skills, but neither Sanheim nor Parayko ranks highly even in that department.

In summary, Canada will rely heavily on their elite talent. Their offense is so good that it could carry them all the way to the gold medal. However, there is a clear vulnerability in their defense that the USA, for instance, doesn’t have. Canada is also less balanced overall and seems heavily tilted toward offense. Add to that the tournament’s weakest goaltending, and it’s not hard to imagine Canada being exposed, even by Sweden and Finland. But in the end, their offense is likely so strong that it won’t matter.

USA’s Roster - 1st

Goalies

Connor Hellebuyck
Jake Oettinger
Jeremy Swayman

Defensemen

Quinn Hughes - Charlie McAvoy
Jaccob Slavin - Adam Fox
Zach Werenski - Brock Faber
Extra: Noah Hanifin

Forwards

Jack Hughes - Auston Matthews - Matthew Tkachuk
Jake Guentzel - Jack Eichel - Matt Boldy
Kyle Connor - Dylan Larkin - J.T. Miller
Brady Tkachuk - Vincent Trocheck - Chris Kreider
Extra: Brock Nelson

My favorites to win the tournament, and it’s not hard to see why when you look at the roster. Best goalie, best defensemen, and a forward group that almost matches Canada’s. While the USA may not quite match Canada’s top-tier firepower with McDavid, MacKinnon, and Makar, they aren’t far behind—and they have a stronger defensive game. They appear more complete than the Canadians, though I’m not suggesting the USA are heavy favorites. This is a battle between the USA and Canada, and it will be close.

This is a battle between the USA and Canada, and it will be close.

Connor Hellebuyck has already been mentioned several times, and there isn’t a single knowledgeable hockey fan who could argue against the fact that he is the best goalie in the world. Once again, he leads the NHL with the best underlying numbers and the highest save percentage in the league. If he stays healthy, he’s on track for a third Vezina Trophy this season.

Even if Hellebuyck were injured, the USA has the luxury of two extremely competent backups in Swayman and Oettinger, who wouldn’t look out of place and are likely the best alternatives behind Juuse Saros.

The Tournament’s Best Defensive Lineup

The USA’s defensive lineup is, quite frankly, absurdly good. Having three of the world’s top four defensemen in the same roster feels almost unfair. Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, and Zach Werenski are racking up points at an incredible pace for their respective NHL teams.

Coming into the season, few would have put Werenski in the same category as Fox and Hughes, but his performance has been absolutely phenomenal. He’s one of the main reasons the Columbus Blue Jackets have been competitive this season, with 48 points in 43 games so far—a mind-blowing stat given the mediocre team he’s on.

The USA also has Charlie McAvoy, who, despite having a middling season, is one of the world’s best defensemen at his peak. And let’s not forget Jaccob Slavin, one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL over the past few years. Slavin’s ability to make his defensive partners better is well-known.

There is absolutely no doubt that the USA has the tournament’s best defensive lineup. While Sweden’s defensive corps is impressive, it doesn’t come close to the quality the USA can field.

Great, But Can the Americans Match Canada?

The USA’s forward group is interesting in many ways. It’s not as flashy as Canada’s, but there is a well-balanced mix of player types. Auston Matthews, last season’s leading goal scorer with 69 goals in 81 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs, is a clinical finisher. While his scoring pace has slowed somewhat this season, few players are as lethal in front of the net.

Jack Hughes, a world-class playmaker, will likely set up Matthews for scoring opportunities—if he doesn’t bury the puck himself. Matthew Tkachuk, another scoring threat, led the Florida Panthers to their Stanley Cup victory last season. Other top forwards include Jack Eichel, Jake Guentzel, Matt Boldy, Kyle Connor, and Dylan Larkin. The USA has no shortage of skilled scorers and will have four dangerous lines to roll out.

But the USA’s big advantage in the tournament is their defensive strength. Beyond Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending, players like Slavin, Faber, and McAvoy are excellent at shutting down opponents. Combined with their numerous skilled scorers, the USA has no clear weaknesses in this roster.

Canada may have the most dangerous offense, but they will be vulnerable defensively in ways the USA simply won’t be.

Betting Tips for the Tournament

With less than a month to go, I won’t be sharing a lot of betting tips just yet. Partly because sportsbooks haven’t opened many long-term markets, but also because key players could still get injured before the tournament starts. That said, I’ve found two bets that I think are excellent picks!

• USA to win the 4 Nations @ +170 on BetMGM

The USA may not match Canada’s absolute top-tier talent, but they’re not far off. The Americans undoubtedly have the best defensive lineup and the best goalie in the tournament. If that’s not reason enough to make them favorites, I don’t know what is.

• Rantanen to be Finland’s top point scorer @ +400 on bet365

Finland’s forward group is highly stratified, and Mikko Rantanen will play a central role in their offense. I have no doubt he’ll get significant ice time and will likely be paired with Barkov and, perhaps, Granlund on the first line. He’ll also be a key figure on the power play. With over 100 points in each of the last two seasons and on pace for 111 points this season, Rantanen is in stellar form!