Your Guide to NHL 2023/24: Pacific Division

Each team receives a rating for each part of the team; goalkeepers, defensemen, and forwards. The overall rating determines the team rankings. To prevent the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of discussing each individual player that contributes to the rating. To determine the rating I've compiled, I use the same model that was the basis for simulations in previous seasons. However, I'd like to remind everyone that, while models are a helpful tool, they are just ONE tool in a large toolbox. The strength of models is best realized when combined with a keen hockey eye and an understanding of probabilities. This combination forms the basis of the betting tips I provide.

Previewing NHL 2023/24.

This season, there have been significant changes in some teams, and as always, the goal is to get the preseason analysis right to set oneself up well for the season. The challenge is, as always, to understand how to evaluate new players coming into the teams, last season's performances, and much more. This year's edition of the NHL seems to me to be really exciting. The first impression, as well as deeper digging, indicates that the league is more balanced than it has been in a long time. Several of the top teams from last season have been somewhat weakened, and the teams from below are closing the gap.

1. Edmonton Oilers

Will this be the year that Connor McDavid gets to lift the Stanley Cup trophy? There's a good chance. Edmonton looked incredibly strong last season but ultimately had to bow out in the playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights, who eventually won the Stanley Cup. Connor McDavid notched an insane 64 goals and 89 assists; I still can't grasp how this is possible in modern hockey, but that's the reality we're in. It also doesn't hurt the Oilers that perhaps the world's second-best offensive player is also on the team. For Leon Draisaitl, it was 52 goals and 76 assists in the regular season, not too shabby, right?

In fact, no team even came close to scoring as many goals as the Edmonton Oilers did last season, with a total of 325 goals in the regular season. The Boston Bruins came closest with 301. The team's major strength is quite evident, and where they lack defensively, the Oilers compensate offensively. Even though the Oilers can naturally become unbalanced with such a monstrous duo in McDavid and Draisaitl, they strengthened their defensive side last season. Among others, they brought in Mattias Ekholm, who seemed as comfortable as a fish in water. Add to that Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard, and the Oilers also have a very pleasant defensive lineup.

In the forward group, it's not all about the star duo; there's a good depth behind them. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, and Zach Hyman are no slouches. It might seem unfair of me to label them as depth players, but next to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, it's hard to call them frontline players. Connor Brown, who joined the team, had an injury-filled season and barely played anything in Washington Capitals, but the season before with the Ottawa Senators, he scored 10+29 in 64 games. The loss of Tyson Barrie may not be entirely replaced, but it shouldn't be an obstacle for the Oilers. The Canadian team looks hard to stop this season. They haven't always succeeded in the playoffs, but in the regular season, they usually make short work of defensively weaker teams. I'm therefore leaning towards an apparently super-strong Oilers, adept at picking up points in the regular season, having a good chance to take home the Presidents Trophy this season. The odds I played can be found in the box at the bottom of the guide.

2. Vegas Golden Knights

Last year's Stanley Cup winners! Yet, they have to settle for a second-place in my ranking. Over the summer, almost nothing has happened with the Golden Knights; it's roughly the same team that just a few months ago lifted the Stanley Cup trophy that will try to repeat the feat. The exception is Reilly Smith, who has gone to the Pittsburgh Penguins, something that diminishes Vegas' forward depth slightly this season. The reason they have to settle for a second place has more to do with how highly I regard the Oilers.

While the Edmonton Oilers are built around an immense top talent, Vegas, on the other hand, possesses better depth in their lines, which was one of the main reasons they emerged as champions. Another reason is the impressive defensive corps which once again looks very strong this season. Having Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, Zach Whitecloud, and Alec Martinez on the same team is a rare privilege. Vegas is a very well-balanced team with great depth, strong defensemen, and a solid goaltending duo. Of course, we shouldn't forget they have notable top players too. Not least, Jack Eichel, who after a couple of challenging seasons and battling injuries, came back in top form, averaging roughly 1 point/game. The team also boasts the talented Mark Stone, who, when fit and healthy, is a world-class forward.

The Golden Knights are definitely a team to watch again this season. They shouldn't have any problems making the playoffs, and once there, they have proven they have what it takes to go all the way. Now, it remains to be seen if they can repeat last year's accomplishment.

3. Calgary Flames

For me personally, the Calgary Flames were one of the biggest disappointments of last season. I had much higher hopes for the Flames, and although they played really well in many games, they didn't get the desired results. The feeling was primarily that the loss of Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau was too much to cover for. Expectations for Jonathan Huberdeau were really high, but when he had to start playing more defensively, he struggled to perform at his best. Nazem Kadri also didn't have a standout season but delivered more in line with what was expected. In the end, there was no playoffs, and the highly-anticipated collapse of the Flames became a reality.

Ahead of this season, Flames' top scorer from the last season, Tyler Toffoli, has moved to the New Jersey Devils. In his place, they've brought in Yegor Sharangovich and have rookie Matthew Coronato available. The replacements don't exactly inspire excitement at first glance. However, I don't think there's too much reason to be gloomy. The remaining team is still solid. In the net, we have Jacob Markström, who, at his best moments, is a top goaltender in the league. The defense remains unchanged, and in my opinion, is one of the best in the league, boasting quality both defensively and offensively.

In summary, Calgary remains a team that should be very much capable of challenging for a playoff spot. The loss of Toffoli, however, will be felt, and the expectations on Huberdeau will be even higher. The odds, however, aren't enticing enough to bet on them reaching the playoffs, as they continue to be rated rather high by the bookmakers, unfortunately.

4. Los Angeles Kings

The Los Angeles Kings don't tend to make too many drastic changes to their roster. Why would they? Over the past two seasons, the team has made it to the playoffs and collected a good number of points in the regular season. Last season, they were in the running for the division title for a long time before eventually settling for 104 points and a third-place finish in the Pacific. Heading into this season, the Kings have acquired Pierre-Luc Dubois to further boost their offense. The Canadian is coming off his best season ever, with 27 goals and 36 assists in the regular season. However, the Kings lost Iafallo and Vilardi, who significantly contributed to the depth of the Kings' forward group. Still, Dubois should suffice to make up for these losses.

There haven't been any changes among the defensemen. Instead of Joonas Korpisalo, it will be Cam Talbot who will serve as the Kings' goaltender this season. Talbot didn't have a stellar season with the Ottawa Senators but showed his worth when he played for the Minnesota Wild. With a more defensively solid team in front of him again, I believe we can expect a better-performing Talbot.

The roster taking to the ice this season is comparable to last season's, and expectations are high from both bookmakers and other experts. I already mentioned last season that I thought the expectations for the Kings were a bit too high, and I was proven wrong when they had a 104-point season. The Kings are a good hockey team and should usually secure a playoff spot, but the continued lack of absolute star players and a couple of aging players who are still central in Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty make me think the team is being valued a bit too highly again.

5. Seattle Kraken

I was early to champion the Seattle Kraken and praised the player roster they had already during the Kraken's debut season two years ago. The first season, however, was a disappointment, but last season they lived up to my expectations and surprised many. They made it to the playoffs and made a significant impression when they knocked out the Colorado Avalanche in the first round. That was followed up with a tight series against Dallas where they eventually had to bow out in a seventh and deciding game. The Kraken have more than sufficiently demonstrated what can be achieved with a deep forward group. It doesn't need to be packed with stars to go far in the playoffs.

Heading into this season, the Kraken has mostly managed to retain their team. The most notable exception might be Daniel Sprong with his 21 goals in the regular season. Instead, he's being replaced by Kailer Yamamoto from the Edmonton Oilers; not quite as impressive in my view but certainly a capable depth player who can skate. Otherwise, there aren't any significant changes.

Now the question is whether the Kraken can have as good a season as the last one. Unfortunately, most people now recognize the greatness of the Kraken, and the team's valuation has soared after their fantastic season last year. The idea that they might hit the 100-point mark again this season seems too optimistic to me, and it feels natural to expect a slight step back. That said, they're certainly in the playoff conversation, and once there, they've proven they can challenge the very best.

6. Vancouver Canucks

Another season in the books where Vancouver couldn't deliver in time to reach the playoffs. However, someone who really broke out was the Swede Elias Pettersson, who accounted for an incredible 39 goals and 63 assists! He led the way offensively alongside J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Brock Boeser. All these players remain with the Canucks and are expected to continue their powerful offensive play this season. So, the lingering problem is: a team that's strong offensively and scores a lot of goals must have defensive issues? This seems to be the case for Vancouver. The Canucks allowed the 8th most goals in the league, making it tough to genuinely compete for a playoff spot.

To stabilize the defense, the Canucks have brought in players like Carson Soucy and Ian Cole, whose primary strengths lie in defense. Whether this is enough to rejuvenate the Vancouver team remains questionable. However, integrating skilled defensemen into a shaky Canucks setup can't hurt. A lot will still depend on whether goalie Thatcher Demko can return to the form he displayed a couple of seasons ago.

All in all, there's still a sense that Vancouver is on the cusp, knocking on the door to the playoffs. If the team can shore up its defense while Pettersson & Co continue to deliver, they have the capacity to be a playoff team. With teams above them looking somewhat weaker compared to the previous season, there's also an opportunity for Vancouver to snatch a wild card spot, not least because the Central division appears much weaker. The margins are thin, and the potential remains for the team to be in the mix. However, I'm hesitant to tie up money until June 2024 betting on the Canucks making the playoffs, as I don't trust the team at all.

7. Anaheim Ducks

It hasn't been an enjoyable season for the Ducks, having only managed to scrape together 58 points in the regular season, the worst in the entire NHL. Moreover, after not winning the draft lottery, they missed the chance to draft Connor Bedard, the biggest hockey promise since Connor McDavid. As a consolation, the Ducks selected the Swedish Leo Carlsson, who is a promising future talent coming off a good season in Örebro as well as with the national team. It remains to be seen if he becomes a regular part of Anaheim this season, but he'll be in good company with young talents, an exciting environment for an NHL rookie.

Like last season, the focal points will mainly be Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras. With 61 and 65 points respectively, these two forwards were the top scorers for Anaheim last season and are likely to remain so in the upcoming season. Ducks also have Mason McTavish to pin their hopes on, who had a decent rookie season with 17 goals and 26 assists. While Anaheim is far from being in the playoff discussion yet, they continue to build from the ground up, and there's a lot of hope for the future. Even though I believe the Ducks might still struggle this season, I think the bookies' valuation of them is a bit too pessimistic. After all, there's a lot of upside in a team with young talents who've grown a year older. The addition of Alex Killorn, coming off his career-best season with the Tampa Bay Lightning, is also beneficial.

Taking a quick look at the goalies and defensemen, we can confirm that it remains unchanged in the net. The experienced John Gibson will continue to be the primary goalie, and behind him, we find the 20-year-old Lukas Dostal who has a bright future ahead. The defense, however, has seen significant movement. For instance, Anaheim has an exciting young talent in Olen Zellweger available this season. They've also brought in the seasoned Radko Gudas. Given the disastrous performance of Ducks' defense last season, any change seems for the better, especially when retaining Jamie Drysdale and Cam Fowler, the only positive points among the defensemen. The team feels somewhat stronger going into this season, and as they continue to add young talent while the already established talents get older, I believe the Anaheim Ducks are slightly undervalued by betting companies. A betting tip is available, which you can find in the box at the bottom of the page.

8. San Jose Sharks

I'll try not to make this entire segment about Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, who no longer plays for the San Jose Sharks. However, it's hard to avoid mentioning the significant loss and how it will impact their already thin defense, not to mention the offensive firepower he provided. Erik Karlsson scored an astounding 101 points (!) for the Sharks last season, and this season he will be found in a Pittsburgh Penguins jersey. Behind Karlsson, the best scorer was Logan Couture with 67 points, and the top-scoring defenseman was Matt Benning with 24 points. It's no exaggeration to say that the Sharks look considerably less sharp this season.

The team has brought in Jan Rutta to compensate for the loss of Karlsson. However, it must be understood that such a defenseman is not there to replace his offense but rather to bolster the defense. The defensive side looks quite blunt going into the season, and we must look to the forward group for any offensive upside. This season we'll see Mike Hoffman, Filip Zadina, Mikael Granlund, and Anthony Duclair wearing the Sharks jersey. Except for Granlund, the other players faced some injury concerns last season. Duclair went far with Florida in the playoffs and, at the very least, gives the Sharks a bit more edge in the forward group. Granlund has never been a top-tier player, but he's very consistent in his delivery, making him a solid acquisition. Mike Hoffman is not getting any younger, but he brings a lot of experience and can still contribute offensively.

However, the loss of Timo Meier and Erik Karlsson means that the team looks much weaker offensively, and I don't have high expectations for them. Where they've lost their edge, they've tried to patch things up with depth players, but I don't think it'll suffice. A weaker offensive Sharks might lead to a slightly more stable defense, but that's not much to cheer about. There's some optimism regarding prospects like Fabian Zetterlund and William Eklund, but I anticipate a Sharks team that falls behind early this season.

My betting tips for the 2023/24 season in the Pacific Division