Your Guide to NHL 2023/24: Metropolitan Division

Each team receives a rating for each part of the team; goalkeepers, defensemen, and forwards. The overall rating determines the team rankings. To prevent the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of discussing each individual player that contributes to the rating. To determine the rating I've compiled, I use the same model that was the basis for simulations in previous seasons. However, I'd like to remind everyone that, while models are a helpful tool, they are just ONE tool in a large toolbox. The strength of models is best realized when combined with a keen hockey eye and an understanding of probabilities. This combination forms the basis of the betting tips I provide.

Previewing NHL 2023/24.

This season, there have been significant changes in some teams, and as always, the goal is to get the preseason analysis right to set oneself up well for the season. The challenge is, as always, to understand how to evaluate new players coming into the teams, last season's performances, and much more. This year's edition of the NHL seems to me to be really exciting. The first impression, as well as deeper digging, indicates that the league is more balanced than it has been in a long time. Several of the top teams from last season have been somewhat weakened, and the teams from below are closing the gap.

1. Carolina Hurricanes

As expected, Carolina performed very strongly last season. They were the team that collected the most points in the regular season behind Boston Bruins, with 113 points, and won the Metropolitan Division one point ahead of New Jersey Devils. It was then the Devils they later eliminated in the second round before they heavily fell in the Conference Finals against Florida Panthers with a 4-0 in matches.

When you take a look at the point distribution among the players in the Hurricanes, it quickly becomes apparent what the whole team building is about. It's not just one line that's supposed to score all the goals, but there should be sharp shooters distributed across all lines, something that makes the Hurricanes incredibly difficult to stop. There is always a threat on the ice. There have been no dramatic changes, Canes have a relatively young team with a lot of talent, and when changes do occur, it's with great care. The team has laid an incredibly solid foundation that has gotten a little better each season. In addition to stars like Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, and Andrei Svechnikov, the team is packed with quality. Among the defenders, we still find Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns but also more hidden gems like Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce, two extremely strong defensive pairs. This season they will also be joined by Dmitry Orlov and Tony DeAngelo. Dmitry Orlov is a real class acquisition by Canes. DeAngelo doesn't possess the same fine defensive properties but is a pronounced power play specialist who, after a season with the Flyers, is back in the Hurricanes where he was the season before last. That time, the hot-headed American scored 51 points in 64 matches.

The forward group has also been reinforced in the form of Michael Bunting from the Toronto organization. He scored 23 goals and 26 assists for the 28-year-old last season. Otherwise, it is players we recognize who still make up the core of the team. Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen, and others. It may not be the sharpest forward group in the league, but definitely one of the better ones. Above all, there are no weak links, and when the team works hard for each other, they are difficult to stop. In goal, it will continue to be Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta who are to hold the fort. Andersen did not have quite as fine a season as the year before, but when he fell through, Raanta showed that the Hurricanes have two high-class goalkeepers to rely on. With such a high lowest level that the team possesses, I think that we will once again see them emerge as division winners for the second year in a row. It will surely be extremely tight between two or three teams, and I'm coolly counting on the Hurricanes being one of those teams.

2. New Jersey Devils

The team from New Jersey has built something of a monster. The construction has been underway in recent seasons and last season we really saw it take shape. They scored 112 points in the regular season, and many puzzle pieces fell into place. Jack Hughes had his breakout season, scoring 43 goals and 56 assists in the regular season. Swedish Jesper Bratt showed that the 2021/22 season was not an anomaly and again scored 73 points in the regular season for the second year in a row. Ahead of this season, the Devils have signed Tyler Toffoli from Calgary Flames and extended key players like Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier. This, of course, means that expectations are sky-high, as they should be.

In addition to the Devils bringing in Flames’ top goal scorer from last season, Toffoli, they have also added a couple of new defensemen. Luke Hughes, who is in his rookie season and Colin Miller from Dallas Stars. Otherwise, it's Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler who are expected to lead the way. This part of the team is the reason why I think the Devils might end up behind the Hurricanes when we sum up the season. Don't get me wrong, we're not talking about average defensemen, but the loss of Ryan Graves and Damon Severson isn’t entirely easy to smooth over. Luke Hughes, though talented, is still a rookie and Miller is not necessarily worse but also not better than what the Devils have lost. Now, the forward setup is so deep and skilled that it probably won’t affect the Devils too radically, but these small margins can be the difference between that final decisive point whether you win the division or not.

In the goal, it will still be Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid guarding. Compared to the probable table competitors, Rangers and Hurricanes have a slight advantage against the Devils. However, Vanecek had a stable season and like the rest of the Devils, he is progressing in development. If this trend continues, the goalkeeper post does not have to be a weakness for the Devils, but at present, he is not quite comparable to Shesterkin or Andersen. If the trend of the young talented players in Devils continues, they could very well snatch the first place in the division. There is a scent of quality and positivity in New Jersey, but the task of taking down the division victory is tough.

3. New York Rangers

The New York Rangers had a good season, scraping together 107 points in last season's regular series. However, in the playoffs, they ran straight into arch-rivals New Jersey Devils, where they were disappointingly defeated in the seventh and decisive match, after winning the first two matches with a total score of 10-2. Ahead of the season, the Rangers have brought in Peter Laviolette as the new head coach, and he is determined to position the New York Rangers as a strong competitor in the fight for the Stanley Cup title.

A lot has happened over the summer. Patrick Kane’s contract with the Rangers expired in July, and we still do not know where he will end up. Experienced Vladimir Tarasenko, like Kane, who was brought in during the ongoing season, has also moved on. Instead, we will see Blake Wheeler in the Rangers jersey this season. The forward veteran has turned 37, but despite that, his production has not decreased too drastically. In Winnipeg, he scored 16 goals and made 39 assists last season. He is still a multifaceted player and should function well whether he ends up with Kreider/Zibanejad in the first line or with Panarin in the second line. We also saw Lafrenière and Kakko take a step in the right direction last season. The expectations are, of course, that they will be able to take further steps in the upcoming season, not least Kakko, who will play his fifth season with the Rangers.

Among the defenders, we will still find the brilliant Adam Fox, one of the league's best in his role. Ryan Lindgren, who goes from strength to strength, and K'Andre Miller, who showed fine offensive qualities last season, are also still present. The Rangers also strengthen the defensive side further by bringing in Erik Gustafsson, who last season managed to play for both Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs. Between the two teams, Gustafsson managed to score 42 points in 70 matches.

In goal, we still find Igor Shesterkin. He didn’t have quite as good a season as in 2021/22 when he won the Vezina Trophy, but he was still one of the league's best goalkeepers last season. This season he will be a colleague with experienced Jonathan Quick, whose stocks have dropped somewhat in recent seasons. We can expect that the Russian will stand very often. Overall, the Rangers have a nice squad that has both good depth and skill. Players like Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, and Chris Kreider scored 104 goals between them in the regular season and are likely to continue to lead the way this season. They have one of the world’s best goalkeepers and a defensive side with a lot of talent, which also has plenty of youthful energy. The team has brought in a lot of experience, and I feel that the Rangers seem very balanced ahead of this season. They should have no trouble securing a playoff spot and could even challenge for a division win if everything turns out well. The margins to the teams above are small.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

After 16 consecutive seasons, the Pittsburgh Penguins missed the playoffs last season. However, the team's aging core of players is heading into an exciting season with the addition of fine reinforcements to the squad, giving hope of bouncing back immediately. Take, for example, Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, who strengthens the Penguins' back end. The 33-year-old Swede scored a total of 101 points in the regular season last year with the San Jose Sharks. Together with Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson, and Ryan Graves, it’s a highly impressive defensive setup that the Pens have assembled this season.

In the top lines, we are long familiar with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who will be joined by Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. The team still has Rickard Rakell, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust, fine players alongside the superstars. Jake Guentzel will miss the start of the season following a foot surgery in August that is expected to take twelve weeks of recovery time. Several players have also been brought in to fill roles in the third and fourth lines, including Lars Eller, Noel Acciari, Rem Pitlick, and Matthew Nieto. Nothing super exciting, and as in previous seasons, most of the focus will be on the top lines for the Penguins. It sometimes becomes noticeable that the defense takes a bit of a hit in favor of the offense. In total, 264 goals were conceded in the regular season last year, while 262 goals were scored. With the team the Pens have, it’s natural that they play to the offensive talent they possess; I expect we’ll see another dimension of that with Erik Karlsson in the squad. They also have no boring lineup in the power play; Rickard Rakell - Sidney Crosby - Evgeni Malkin - Erik Karlsson - Kris Letang. The addition of Karlsson should bump up the Penguins' PP%, something that was quite mediocre last season.

Pittsburgh has an experienced, albeit somewhat aging, squad, but there is still brutal talent available. Erik Karlsson should also make the Penguins even more potent this season. The Penguins shouldn't have too many problems bouncing back and having a better season and even making the playoffs. However, the teams above are stronger than they have been in a long time, so securing a direct spot will be a challenge.

5. New York Islanders

Before I even delve deep into the Islanders' roster and do my research, I know that it’s more or less just a matter of copying last year's overview (Ctrl + C) and pasting it into this year's guide. Say what you will about the Islanders, but they love to retain their players season after season. Okay, that's not entirely true, because sometimes there is a change during the season at least. However, in the summer, as per their usual, they haven’t changed anything. Now it remains to be seen if they can still make it to another playoff.

They didn’t disappoint fans last season; after a lot of hard work, they eventually clinched a wildcard spot. In the playoffs, they fell in the first round to the Carolina Hurricanes – no shame in that; the Canes were, and still are, one of the league’s top teams.

Last season, I particularly highlighted the Islanders' defensive lineup, which I thought was their strongest team component, together with the brilliant Ilya Sorokin in goal. Ctrl + C. Sorokin is the Islanders' "golden boy" who was exclusively the biggest reason the Islanders performed so well last season. It’s hard to demand that he be as good this year, but if he is, there’s undoubtedly a chance we’ll see the New York Islanders in yet another playoff. He also gets good support from the defenders, and it's tough to face the Islanders when they play their grinding hockey. They’re not always fun to watch, but often effective. Do I even need to write that their defense is their biggest strength? And did I mention that Sorokin is probably the league’s best goalkeeper?

6. Washington Capitals

It was a disappointing season for the Washington Capitals in 2022-23. A sixth place in the Metropolitan Division resulted in them missing the playoffs – something that hadn't happened since the 2013-14 season. It was an unexpected turn for stars like Nicklas Bäckström and Alex Ovechkin. A few changes have been made to the Capitals ahead of the season, but most importantly, they are probably just happy to have their star players fit for the opening match on the night of October 14 against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The question is, what can we expect from a Washington Capitals team that still places so much trust in the older Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Bäckström, and John Carlson? We know very well the quality they possess, but age has begun to take its toll. For Ovechkin, a lot will be about the chase for Wayne Gretzky’s impressive goal record of 897 goals. With his reliable partner Bäckström by his side, we can at least expect him, as usual, to be the Capitals' top scorer this season.

Ovechkin and Bäckström have been the key to the Capitals' successes since 2006-07, and it’s expected to be the same this season. However, the team cannot rely exclusively on two players, and indeed there is quality behind the star duo. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, and others could give the Capitals the boost they need to be a playoff team again; they have done it before with a nearly similar roster and know what it takes. An exciting new addition who, if he stays fit, gives the Capitals another boost in the right direction is Max Pacioretty. The veteran forward has a nice shot but injuries have marked the last few years of his career, so it's hard to know what the Capitals can get out of him. However, in my opinion, the strongest part of the team is the goalkeeper post. Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren are a nice duo to have at one's disposal, especially Kuemper who has delivered stable goalkeeper play for almost a decade.

Can the Capitals challenge for a playoff spot again? Doubtful. The team is too aged and injury-prone for me to truly believe that we will see the Capitals back in the playoffs. Especially when the surrounding teams are only getting better.

7. Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers began a clear restructuring last season, with the club’s legend Daniel Briere temporarily serving as general manager. Last season, the Flyers accumulated 75 points over 82 games, landing them third from the bottom in the Eastern Conference, resulting in them missing the playoffs for the third year in a row. This restructuring is expected to continue this season. We’ve seen the likes of Ivan Provorov, Kevin Hayes, and Tony DeAngelo leave ahead of this season. However, this creates opportunities for younger talents to showcase their abilities.

On the offensive side, Travis Konecny has been a key player in recent seasons. The 26-year-old Canadian led the team’s internal points league with 61 points (31 goals and 30 assists) in the 60 games he played last season. Sean Couturier, who has had injury problems before, is expected to make a comeback, something that is more than needed, having missed all of last season. Owen Tippett also impressed last season with his 27 goals, and Noah Cates had a strong debut season.

On the defensive end, the experienced Marc Staal has been brought in. However, it will still be Travis Sanheim and Rasmus Ristolainen who will continue to shoulder a large responsibility in the defense. Sean Walker, who was recently acquired from Los Angeles, is another new defenseman we’ll find in the Flyers this season. The most exciting of the defenders, however, is Cam York, who I hope continues to put his best foot forward, only 22 years old and could be a player we find in the Flyers jersey for a long time to come.

All the reinforcements will give Carter Hart some much-needed backing in the goal. Behind him, the Flyers have brought in Cal Petersen as a backup. However, it will likely be Hart who is expected to play most of the Flyers' games with the current backup goalie. All in all, there are especially some exciting younger players to keep an eye on; otherwise, it is a team that is in an ongoing process of rebuilding. We can't expect Philadelphia to be playoff-ready for at least a couple of years, although there is still some quality left in the team.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets

Last season was full of anticipation when the Blue Jackets acquired star Johnny Gaudreau during the NHL Free Agency. Despite this, the season proved challenging as the team suffered many injuries and struggled in the league. The final result was Columbus landing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The hopes for the playoffs, to put it mildly, evaporated. This season hasn’t even started but is already filled with controversy following the coaching change less than a week ago. Babcock was ousted after how he treated some of the team's players. After a notably turbulent period in the club’s history and with a disastrous season behind them, can it only get better?

Gaudreau and Patrik Laine are still expected to be the star duo leading the team offensively. Despite moments of brilliance, injuries prevented Laine from really reaching his absolute top level. Gaudreau posted 74 points, which wouldn’t have been bad for a player with a lower salary, but the expectations on Gaudreau are much higher than that. He had a fantastic season with the Flames the year before, amassing 115 points, and while a drop-off is natural, especially in a weaker team, Columbus fans will demand more from him this season, and rightly so. Expectations will also be high for the talented rookie, Adam Fantilli, who will surely be a nice addition, even if it takes a few seasons before we see his full effect on this team.

There have been some exciting changes in the Blue Jackets ahead of this season, especially on the defensive side. The team has brought in Damon Severson from the Devils and Ivan Provorov from the Flyers. Along with Zach Werenski, there’s some offensive upside to this defensive lineup, and it certainly looks a bit more appealing compared to last season.

The Blue Jackets are hoping for a stable goaltending situation this season, especially after using six different goalies during the last season. Elvis Merzlikins is expected to be the team's primary goaltender, with Daniil Tarasov as backup. Merzlikins was unrecognizable last season, allowing 26 more goals than he should have according to underlying numbers, and that only in 30 matches. In his defense, I can understand that his motivation plummeted with the minimal support he received in many of the games. I conclude by reiterating that "it can only get better"; however, I wouldn't expect any miracles.

My betting tips for the 2023/24 season in the Metropolitan Division