Your Guide to NHL 2023/24: Central Division

Each team receives a rating for each part of the team; goalkeepers, defensemen, and forwards. The overall rating determines the team rankings. To prevent the text from dragging on too long, I've compiled the results instead of discussing each individual player that contributes to the rating. To determine the rating I've compiled, I use the same model that was the basis for simulations in previous seasons. However, I'd like to remind everyone that, while models are a helpful tool, they are just ONE tool in a large toolbox. The strength of models is best realized when combined with a keen hockey eye and an understanding of probabilities. This combination forms the basis of the betting tips I provide.

Previewing NHL 2023/24.

This season, there have been significant changes in some teams, and as always, the goal is to get the preseason analysis right to set oneself up well for the season. The challenge is, as always, to understand how to evaluate new players coming into the teams, last season's performances, and much more. This year's edition of the NHL seems to me to be really exciting. The first impression, as well as deeper digging, indicates that the league is more balanced than it has been in a long time. Several of the top teams from last season have been somewhat weakened, and the teams from below are closing the gap.

1. Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars had another strong season and after accumulating 108 points in the regular season, they eventually passed Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken in the playoffs before ultimately falling to the Vegas Golden Knights in the Conference Finals. The Stars have a team that should have very good chances of making the playoffs again and going far. All the ingredients are in place.

Heading into this season, the team has not made any radical changes. They still have one of the league's absolute best first lines with Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski. Behind the trio that scored prolifically last season, they have brought in Matt Duchene and Craig Smith. Duchene is a top-class acquisition and gives the Stars an almost ridiculously good depth in their lines. In addition to the signings, the team still retains veterans like Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Evgenii Dadonov, and Mason Marchment as well as last year's rookie Wyatt Johnston who netted 24 goals in the regular season. This group has both top talent and depth, simply one of the league's strongest forward groups.

Taking a look at the defensemen, there's plenty of quality here too. Miro Heiskanen naturally stands out as one of the league's best defensemen, but there's ample quality around him as well. In goal, it's still Jake Oettinger and Scott Wedgewood guarding the net, a very solid goalie duo. There aren't any apparent weaknesses, and I'd be surprised if Dallas doesn't seriously contend for the Stanley Cup again this season. I feel that division rival Colorado might possess a slightly higher peak, but the depth in Dallas' forward group combined with great top talent and players who are familiar with each other makes me more optimistic about the team from Texas, and I believe the primary value lies here.

2. Colorado Avalanche

One of the favorites according to the betting companies to clinch the Stanley Cup, for the third, fourth season in a row? The top six, as usual, looks exceptionally strong with players like Nathan Mackinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin, and Artturi Lehkonen. Now the question is whether the team can bounce back after last year's debacle where they were ousted by the Seattle Kraken in the first round.

What I've often criticized is the Avalanche's "bottom six". The first two lines have frequently been among the league's best in recent seasons, while the third and fourth lines have left something to be desired. For this season, they've tried to address that, but have they succeeded? It looks like we'll see a completely restructured third line with Miles Wood, Ross Colton, and Tomas Tatar. My initial reaction was that it left something to be desired, but the more I thought about it, I wondered if it might actually be pretty decent. There's plenty of experience among these three gentlemen, and all three certainly have offensive qualities. Tatar, a long-time player in the league, comes from a solid season with the NJ Devils, tallying 48 points in 82 regular-season games. Miles Wood and he have been teammates for the last two seasons and know each other well. Add Ross Colton, who posted 16 goals and 16 assists as a third/fourth liner in Tampa Bay, and they should be able to provide Colorado with a line that's not too shabby compared to previous seasons' counterparts.

It was palpable at times last season that Colorado missed Gabriel Landeskog, and unfortunately, it looks like they'll miss him throughout the upcoming season due to his injured knee. To fill the gaps left by J.T. Compher and Alex Newhook in the top lines, the Avs have brought in Jonathan Drouin and Ryan Johansen. Jonathan Drouin, drafted third overall in 2013, hasn't quite developed as anticipated, largely due to injury troubles throughout his career. However, when he's fit, he has soft hands and can produce great assists. It feels like a gamble to bring in the injury-prone Drouin, but there's no doubt he can contribute offensively. Ryan Johansen has been a key player for Nashville over the past seven seasons, a solid acquisition, although it doesn't particularly excite me.

With the league's best defensive pairing in Cale Makar and Devon Toews, Colorado doesn't need to worry about bolstering their defense. They also have strong assets in Samuel Girard and, not least, Bowen Byram, who hopefully stays healthy this season. In goal, it's still Alexandar Georgiev leading the team from the back, and so far, he's been doing well. While the Avs might not have the league's sharpest goalie duo, Georgiev is top-tier, and with the squad in front of him, it's not a concern. Even though I think Colorado seems to have filled their gaps decently, there are quite a few new players coming in, some with injury histories. There's no doubt that Colorado has a set of really fine players; what leaves me ambivalent is whether it's enough to be such a clear contender as the bookies suggest. Comparatively, it feels like, for instance, we get something much more stable in division rival Dallas Stars.

3. Minnesota Wild

Minnesota is one of those teams that it seems there's rarely much buzz about. This season is no exception, and perhaps there's no significant reason to change much. Wild still has a very capable team that belongs to that group in the NHL expected to have a decent chance of racking up 100+ points in a season.

Looking at the offense, much revolves around the first line and Kirill Kaprizov, who continues to impress. He was hampered by some injuries last season but is one of the league's sharpest goal scorers, as evidenced by 40 goals in 67 regular-season games. Behind him, it might not be the same star power, but there's plenty of quality. Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello, Matthew Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, among others, maintain a high standard. Wild's strength has been a consistently high baseline level of the players they have available.

There haven't been any major changes, and I think it's reasonable to rank the team similarly to last season. A team that should secure a playoff spot without major issues. However, the question remains whether the team has what it takes to go much further. I was more optimistic about them a season ago. Don't get me wrong, it's still a very good hockey team that deserves our respect, but they don't exactly scream Stanley Cup champions, especially when surrounding teams seem to have strengthened their prospects.

4. Winnipeg Jets

It was a tight race in the Western Conference at the end of last season between the Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, and Calgary Flames over who would grab the last playoff spot. In the end, the Jets pulled through. However, their joy was short-lived after they were crushed by the Vegas Golden Knights 4-1 in games right in the first round. Now the Jets will try to replicate their achievement and make it to another playoff.

Ahead of the season, there have been some moves. Among them, Blake Wheeler has gone to the NY Rangers, and Pierre-Luc Dubois has headed to the Los Angeles Kings. Instead, the Jets are filling the gaps with Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, and Rasmus Kupari. At a glance, the replacements don't seem too shabby, even if they aren't quite as sharp as Wheeler and Dubois. Both Vilardi and Iafallo have been quite good during their time with the Kings, and they're likely to hold their own in a Jets jersey. Young Cole Perfetti also had a strong rookie season, posting 8+22 in 51 games and has gained another year of experience. While I don't think Winnipeg looks as offensive as last season, there's still plenty of quality in the forward group. As long as Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers stay healthy, there's a lot of talent on the team.

One can't discuss Winnipeg without mentioning Josh Morrissey, who had a fantastic season and truly made a breakthrough, with 76 points in 78 games – impressive for a defenseman. Now it remains to be seen if he can follow up on this successful season and prove it wasn't just a one-off. Winnipeg seems satisfied with the defensemen from last season and has chosen not to change anything. I think it seems right for them, as the Jets' defense generally performed well last season. In the net, they still have Connor Hellebuyck, who needs no further introduction, as he remains one of the league's best goalies. Behind him, we find Laurent Brossoit, who actually has three seasons with the Jets under his belt and is now returning after two years with the Vegas Golden Knights. Hellebuyck will likely continue to play 60+ games in the regular season. All in all, the Jets should be able to secure a playoff spot, but not much more than that.

5. Nashville Predators

In Nashville, we get acquainted with a series of new players in key positions. Throughout the current season and over the summer, a core group of players we've come to know in Nashville has moved on. Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm, Nino Niederreiter, Tanner Jeannot, and Matt Duchene, all of whom played for the Predators last season, are no longer with the Nashville organization. These are radical changes, partly necessary to bring about a change due to expensive contracts and lack of results. The question is, what can a significantly revamped Predators team hope for this season?

To compensate for all the departed players, they've brought in Ryan O'Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, and Denis Gurianov. Players who cannot be considered full-fledged replacements for all that the team has lost. Heading into the season, it is clear we'll see a weakened Nashville team. However, where things seem more stable is among the defensemen and goalies. The team still boasts a strong defensive side, led by Roman Josi. Additionally, Ryan McDonagh and Tyson Barrie, along with newcomer Luke Schenn, maintain high standards. In the goal, the brilliant Juuse Saros will continue to guard the net, one of the league's very best goalies.

Even though their offense is expected to take a hit, the Preds still retain some quality. Notably, Filip Forsberg and Thomas Novak, who were some of the brightest spots last season, will remain crucial parts of Nashville's offense this season. All in all, however, it's a weaker team due to necessary trades, and I believe reaching the playoffs will be a challenge. The team didn't manage it last season, and there's little to suggest they'll achieve it this season either. Saros can't win all the games for the Predators.

6. St. Louis Blues

Last season was a real disaster for the St. Louis Blues. The team scraped together a mere 81 points, and even if that was an underperformance given the squad, there isn't much suggesting they've suddenly become a formidable playoff team this season. There haven't been any drastic changes over the summer; the most exciting addition is Kevin Hayes. It's nothing to get particularly excited about, unfortunately. Losing Vladimir Tarasenko last season makes me even less optimistic, as Hayes hardly replaces his offensive capabilities. Apart from that, nothing especially noteworthy has happened.

We shouldn't take away from the Blues the fact that they have some genuinely talented players on the team. Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, and not least Robert Thomas know how to play hockey. But if we start comparing the team they put on the ice at the beginning of this season to the start of the last, it doesn't look better. Back then, the team had Tarasenko, as mentioned before, but also Ryan O'Reilly, who has long been a crucial part of the team. The loss of both those players hasn't been adequately replaced, and the general feeling is that the Blues are on a downward trend. In goal, Jordan Binnington will still own the primary spot by a mile. His goaltending colleague is Joel Hofer, who has only 8 NHL games under his belt so far. Add to that Binnington not coming off a standout season, and that part of the team doesn't seem promising either.

Of course, we shouldn't rule out the possibility of the Blues competing for a Wildcard spot or similar. They did underperform quite heavily last season, after all. But all I see is a weaker team compared to what was on the ice at the beginning of the previous season. However, I won't be placing any bets on them missing the playoffs, as betting agencies seem to agree that they likely won't be in the playoffs this season.

7. Arizona Coyotes

Arizona was, after all, a pleasant surprise for me last season. 70 points earned and second to last in the Central might not sound impressive, but we have to remember the circumstances. Heading into the season, expectations weren't high for the Coyotes from either myself or the betting agencies, and the roster seemed pretty thin. For the upcoming season, no miracles have occurred, but a few injections at least inspire hope for a somewhat brighter future.

Logan Cooley is a promising young prospect, born in 2004, who has dominated in American college hockey. He might be too green to give a significant boost to the Coyotes this season, but he's a franchise name for the club. Besides, Arizona has acquired Sean Durzi, Troy Stecher, and Mathew Dumba to stabilize the defense. These might not be names that make me jump for joy, but they're seasoned NHL players of decent quality for the league. Durzi is a defenseman who often flies under the radar for many. He's entering his third year in the NHL and, in his first two seasons with the LA Kings, he amassed 65 points in 136 games, so there's a bit of offensive potential beyond his defensive skills.

Among the forwards, the Coyotes have brought in Jason Zucker, Alexander Kerfoot, and re-acquired Nick Bjugstad. They're not standout players, but similar to the defensemen, they're steady NHL performers. Offensively, much will still revolve around Clayton Keller, who significantly led the internal points table with 31 more points than the second-placed Nick Schmaltz. It's not as if Arizona suddenly looks like a top team, or is even close to being in the playoff conversation yet, but things seem to be moving in the right direction. Especially, I think Arizona's strength appears to lie in a decent depth among the forwards. Many will likely glance at the roster and write them off, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see them improve with an additional 10-12 points this season. It's worth noting that Arizona has Jakub Voracek and Shea Weber on the "Injured Reserve list", but it's doubtful we'll see either of them on the ice this season, if ever again.

8. Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard! Connor Bedard! Connor Bedard! It's mostly going to be about the young talent who is predicted to have a bright future. By all accounts, he is a fantastic hockey player already, and he is ushering in a new era for the Chicago Blackhawks. In the WHL, he scored 71 goals and made 72 assists (!) in 57 games. It's not an exaggeration to say that he will be of good NHL quality right now. However, I believe it's essential to understand that he is not a new Connor McDavid. Partly because he has a completely different playing style and partly because it's demanding way too much from him. In his rookie season, McDavid averaged over 1 point/game, so we need to take it easy, the pressure on Bedard is big enough as it is. Having said that, this is a momentum shift for the Blackhawks.

Even though most of the focus will be on Connor Bedard, there are players around him too. There haven't been any significant changes. Most notably, Nick Foligno and Taylor Hall, along with Ryan Donato, are strengthening the forward group. I'm not convinced. Taylor Hall is far from the player he was a few years ago when he won the Hart Memorial Trophy. He has undoubtedly performed reasonably well with the Boston Bruins, where he has had a more comfortable role and didn't need to be the team's star. In Chicago, he will likely play in the first line with Connor Bedard, and suddenly he will be in the spotlight again. I don't think that role suits him anymore.

Among the defensemen, it's mainly the rookie Kevin Korchinski that will be exciting to watch. Otherwise, it's as in recent seasons, with Seth Jones, who is pretty much the mainstay. In goal, it will be Petr Mrazek and Arvid Söderblom, one of the league's weakest goalie pairs, although Söderblom has the future ahead of him. Ultimately, a lot will depend on Bedard's performance, and I'm not keen on relying too heavily on an 18-year-old rookie, even if he's the most exciting rookie since McDavid. I'm looking forward to seeing what Chicago has to offer in a few years!

My betting tips for the 2023/24 season in the Central Division