Tip: The playoff dream lives on as the Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Washington Capitals!

The competition is really heating up for the last playoff spots. New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning can set their sights on the upcoming playoffs. However, behind them, there's a fierce battle for the last two playoff spots. New York Islanders, Detroit Red Wings, and Pittsburgh Penguins are feverishly chasing Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals, who currently hold the last two spots. The margins are extremely small, and thanks to the Capitals' three consecutive losses, Pittsburgh suddenly has a chance to further close the gap with a win tonight.

Penguins Deserve More Points

This season has definitely not gone the way of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Ahead of this year's NHL season, the Penguins brought in Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, hoping to boost their powerplay and avoid last year's debacle when the team missed the playoffs for the first time in 16 seasons. With nearly the entire regular season completed, we can conclude that although the Penguins are adept at creating scoring opportunities, they have not been able to capitalize on the fine play, and their powerplay has been the third weakest in the league. A closer look at the underlying numbers shows that the Penguins, despite their low position in the table, actually have the league's fifth-best xGF%. Briefly, this means the team creates a lot going forward (high xGF) while not allowing too much against (xGA).

It's easy to quickly look at the goalkeepers and wonder if they have been horrible, but that's not the case. Both Jarry and Nedeljkovic have decent numbers this season, so the goalkeepers can't be blamed. Having a high xGF (expected goals forward) isn't synonymous with actually scoring goals. However, Pittsburgh has enough skilled finishers that this shouldn't be a problem. Despite this, the team has not managed to get the season going until recently. Lately, the Penguins have shown their best side and secured convincing victories against, among others, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, and New Jersey Devils. The question is whether the payoff comes too late. Ahead of tonight's match against the Capitals, the Penguins are approximately +550 to reach the playoffs. A win in regular time tonight would drastically improve their chances.

Not a Good Game Last Time

The Washington Capitals have exceeded my expectations this season by being in such a good position in the playoff battle. After losing tough games against Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins, the last game against Buffalo Sabres was important to keep a hold of the playoff spots. Unfortunately for the Capitals, they could not withstand Buffalo's offense and a total of six goals fell when the final score was 6-2 to Buffalo.

While the Penguins have fantastic underlying numbers, it's a different story for the Capitals. The team has directly weak numbers. They create mediocre offense and let in too much defensively. Much of their success can actually be attributed to one of this year's big surprises, Charlie Lindgren, in the Capitals' goal. He has been directly brilliant for much of the season, taking over the first spot from the experienced Darcy Kuemper. However, Lindgren has wobbled a bit lately, and it becomes apparent how dependent the Capitals are on him being at his best to win games. Alexander Ovechkin, who had been looking quite pale for a long time, has come back to life and is once again recognizable. However, I think Ove & Co will have a hard time resisting an onrushing Penguins tonight!

Betting Tips and Conclusion

There are a few injuries to consider. In the Penguins, Tristan Jarry is DTD (day-to-day), as are Ryan Graves and John Ludvig. In the Capitals, T.J Oshie and Darcy Kuemper are also DTD. Despite the injuries, both teams can put strong teams on the ice tonight. However, I think the Penguins must be considered a significantly better team when looking across all positions, despite what the standings say. "The table never lies" is a saying, but of course, it's not true in many cases. Looking at the Penguins, I see a team that should be in the playoffs but hasn't managed to perform this season. Thanks to a strong period with points in six consecutive matches and several losses for the Capitals and Flyers, the Penguins still have a chance to sprint into the playoffs. A lot needs to go right, and not least, the Capitals need to be defeated tonight. I actually believe that a Penguins in top form will get the job done. Considering how important it is for the away team to win this match in regular time, I will not shy away from a DNB or Moneyline; we play Penguins to win in regular time!

Pittsburgh Penguins FT @ +145 on bet365!