Tip: Strong-form meeting in New York between the Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs!

The home team New York Islanders became the first team this season to break the Los Angeles Kings' eleven-game winning streak away from home. After a strong push in the third period, Anders Lee tied the game against the Islanders before Jean-Gabriel Pageau decided it early in overtime. While the Islanders defeated the Kings, the Toronto Maple Leafs secured a convincing victory against the Nashville Predators, who were shut out at home in Canada. Now, a meeting between two in-form teams with renewed confidence awaits, but despite this, I disagree with the betting companies about the valuation and will send along a betting tip.

Can Sorokin buy out the Islanders again?

The New York Islanders are having a reasonably good season in terms of results compared to expectations and are currently in a playoff spot. As I already wrote a lot about before the season, not much has happened in the New York team ahead of the season; they are comfortable with the squad they have at their disposal. The team has shown before that they have what it takes to reach the playoffs, and I think it is reasonable to assume that they can continue to manage this task this season, albeit via a wild card spot. However, there are still many matches where Sorokin or Varlamov need to play great for the New York Islanders to win games. This in itself is both good and bad. It is rarely sustainable for a team to be so dependent on the goalkeepers performing miracles, but at the same time, the Islanders probably have the league's best goalkeeper duo, and that goes a long way, whether you like it or not.

The Islanders are a team that rarely does well when looking at the underlying numbers. Last season, the team had negative xGF% figures (250.5 xGF - 266.43 xGA), but this was compensated by Sorokin having an incredible season where a mediocre performing goalkeeper would let in about 40 more goals (moneypuck). Like last season, this season's pattern looks very similar. Besides xG figures, there are few teams that allow as many HDCA (High Danger Chances Against), i.e., dangerous scoring chances. Only San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks, and Buffalo Sabres allow more dangerous scoring chances. Not a very good company, indicating how dependent the team is on its two goalkeepers. My whole point is that against an offensively skilled team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, I wouldn't be surprised if they were punished for their sometimes careless play.

Leafs can win matches in regular time!

One of the great frustrations for Toronto fans (and my own) this season has been the Leafs' inability to close games in regular time. Too often, the team has taken an early lead only to see themselves lose the game and concede a couple of late goals, then needing to win in overtime or penalties. However, the last two matches have looked better, first against Ottawa Senators and most recently against Nashville Predators. In the match against an in-form Nashville Predators, Leafs looked very dominant, as evidenced by 37-18 in shots and 4-0 on the jumbotron.

Betting tip and conclusion

It's two in-form teams clashing in New York, but I lean towards wanting to play on the Toronto Maple Leafs. They will play a match the night after against the New York Rangers, but I hope they choose to put Samsonov in goal for this match and the third goalkeeper Martin Jones against the Rangers. Even if this is not the case, goalkeeping is not the strongest part of Maple Leafs and should not be too decisive against a team like the Islanders, whose offense is not the sharpest. Similarly, the defense, which needed improvement, does not worry me too much against the Islanders. Besides that, I still think the Leafs should be considered a top team in the Eastern Conference, while the Islanders are bordering on being a wildcard team when we sum up the season. Add to that Toronto has closed at lower or equivalent odds against teams like Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins, etc., and I see no reason why +140 can be anything but a good bet.

The bet thus becomes Toronto Maple Leafs FT @ +140 at bet365!