Tip: Red Wings in Top Form Visit the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center

Many fans are understandably excited about Detroit’s strong start. And yes, a lot has gone right. But when the Red Wings are priced at even odds on the road against a team they were rated roughly equal to before the season, I can’t help but question whether the market has become a bit too results-oriented.

An Impressive Start – But Slightly Inflated?

Don’t get me wrong – the Red Wings have started better than I, and probably many others, expected. The team, which made few changes to its roster during the offseason, has notched wins against the Toronto Maple Leafs (twice), Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Edmonton Oilers. All of them are strong teams on paper, but they share one thing in common: they’ve all started the season poorly.

Toronto dominated their home game against Detroit but couldn’t solve Cam Talbot in goal and have struggled offensively since Mitch Marner’s departure. Florida continues to battle injuries, Tampa Bay has yet to find their form, and the Oilers once again look sluggish and unmotivated in the early stages. Does that take away from Detroit’s performance? Not necessarily – but it’s hard to deny that they’ve caught these top teams at just the right time.

Despite the strong start, I’m cautious when a team that was rated similarly to Buffalo before the season is suddenly priced evenly away from home after just a handful of games. Detroit will also be without superstar Patrick Kane, who – despite his age – remains a major power-play weapon.

Buffalo Sabres – A Team of Highs and Lows

The start to the season left much to be desired, but after the offensive explosion against the Ottawa Senators – where they scored eight goals – things have looked much brighter. They followed that up with a shutout win against the Florida Panthers before falling on the road to a red-hot Montreal Canadiens. The Sabres weren’t the worse team in that game – they were simply on the wrong side of the margins.

All in all, I think much of the early criticism of the Sabres has been undeserved. This team has enormous upside and can play dynamic, high-tempo hockey when things click – though the youthful inexperience among their younger players can occasionally shine through. Much still depends on Dahlin and Thompson performing well, but Zach Benson has injected a ton of energy with six assists in just three games. Josh Doan also looks like an excellent addition, posting 2+3 in his first six games.

In goal, Alex Lyon has started very well and currently ranks in the top ten among goalies by underlying metrics. It’s a small sample, but it could give Buffalo the stability they need to contend for a playoff spot later in the season.

Injuries have slowed the Sabres somewhat, with Josh Norris and Justin Danforth still sidelined. On the positive side, projected starting goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is close to returning from injury, giving Buffalo much-needed depth in net and allowing Lyon some rest.

At even strength, both teams have been fairly similar – the Red Wings sit at 52.65 xGF% compared to the Sabres’ 51.39 xGF%. On the power play, however, Buffalo has the edge with 26.3% versus Detroit’s 22.2%. It’s early in the season, so numbers like these should be taken with a grain of salt, but they do show that Buffalo isn’t playing like a bottom-tier team – as some have too quickly suggested.

Conclusion and Betting Pick

Two teams that were rated similarly before the season and have performed roughly the same in terms of underlying metrics. Patrick Kane is missing for Detroit, yet the odds have nearly shifted to make them slight favorites on the road. I just don’t buy it.

The pick is therefore Buffalo Sabres FT @ 2.50 bet365, simply because the odds feel far too form-driven.

The only thing that could hurt this bet is if Buffalo decides to rest Lyon after six straight starts and instead give untested Colten Ellis a shot in net. But with UPL set to return soon, I doubt they feel any need to do that.