Tip: Edmonton Oilers in free fall visit Washington Capitals

Before the season, many, including myself and the betting companies, ranked the Edmonton Oilers as one of this year's major challengers for the Stanley Cup. After eighteen rounds played, the team is third last in the Western Conference, and the question is whether the playoffs are in danger. There is no doubt that it is a team with a very high capacity, the same team took 109 points in the regular season last year and reached the Conference final the year before. But to defeat a red-hot Washington Capitals, they need to significantly pull themselves together!

What's actually wrong?

The question has been asked several times and has more than one answer. To begin with, it's obvious that the defense has massive problems. Recently, the Oilers sent Jack Campbell to the AHL and have instead relied on Stuart Skinner, which has helped marginally. With an average of four goals conceded per match, poor goaltending is part of the problem, but when goalies get little or sometimes no help from the defenders, it's hard to constantly make impossible saves. Don't get me wrong, goaltending is obviously not good, but it has never been the Oilers' strong suit, not last season when they went to the quarterfinals in the playoffs, or the year before when they went to the Conference final.

Edmonton Oilers still have a good powerplay (21.9%), but it's not nearly as efficient as last season when they had a 32.4% success rate. The feeling is that many NHL teams have studied the Oilers' powerplay during the summer and are no longer surprised by how the puck is moved and where the passes go. Now, players like Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are so skilled and creative that they often find solutions anyway. On the positive side, there have been players around the two stars who have contributed a lot offensively. Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are averaging almost as many points as McDavid and Draisaitl so far. This is good in the aspect that everything doesn't have to go through the two, but also worrying that point production hasn't been higher. The benchmark is, of course, not entirely fair in this case, but the expectation on McDavid and Draisaitl should also be much higher than on the others.

Washington on a Roll

An aging Washington Capitals has started the season well and is up to five straight wins after the overtime victory against Buffalo Sabres. They were not overly convincing against the Sabres or the Blue Jackets in the previous match, but there is a strength in being able to win matches without impressing. I still don't think Washington will make it all the way to the playoffs, but the start of this season at least makes it more exciting in the Eastern Conference. The 38-year-old Alexander Ovechkin leads the internal point league, but it is Dylan Strome who has found the net most times with his eight goals.

One knows somewhat what one gets from Washington, a team that plays a fairly straightforward "power hockey" and relies a lot on its experience. The most positive surprise for me this season in the Capitals has been Connor McMichael, whom I like. He breaks patterns and is not afraid to challenge his man and drive towards the goal. A player worth keeping an extra eye on. Ahead of tonight's match, Evgeny Kuznetsov is still day-to-day.

Betting Tips and Conclusion

When these two teams met about a year ago in this arena, with fairly similar teams, Edmonton Oilers closed around -100 on a win in regular time. Since then, a lot has happened, but had someone offered me today's odds on the Edmonton Oilers at the beginning of this season, I would have shouted high odds. At the time of writing, we are offered +135 on a straight win for the Edmonton Oilers, an odd that would have been incredibly high before the season, but now feels less attractive for obvious reasons. However, it is too attractive not to choose to bet on the Oilers. On paper, this should be a match that suits Edmonton's fast playing style. If they can just gather themselves and play disciplined, they should be clear favorites still. I understand, however, that many are hesitant to bet on the Oilers considering how it has looked in recent rounds and this season, but somewhere it's these difficult bets that often need to be clicked, we shouldn't be blinded by form!

The betting tip is Edmonton Oilers +0 @ -118 with bet365 (money back on a draw in regular time)