Tip: Detroit Red Wings will have a tough time in Toronto.

Toronto Maple Leafs might have to manage without their star, Auston Matthews, but just like when the Edmonton Oilers have to play without Connor McDavid, there's still a strong team behind that is difficult to beat.

Detroit’s Big Challenge

The Red Wings have collected 13 points after 12 games, and considering how they’ve played on the ice, it’s probably an overachievement. The most concerning figure for this storied team is that they have the lowest xG in 5-on-5 play of all teams in the entire league. It may not be too surprising given that they lose the shot statistics game after game. Over short periods, teams can overcome these underlying numbers with good goaltending and efficient scoring, but over an entire season, that spells trouble. Yzerman has yet to succeed in building a competitive team capable of reaching the playoffs, at least based on the opening games.

Detroit has been experimenting with line combinations throughout the season without really finding anything that works. The team is currently heavily reliant on individual players stepping up in game-deciding moments. With players like Larkin, DeBrincat, Kane, and Raymond, it sometimes works, but against stronger opponents like the Toronto Maple Leafs, it’s likely not enough. Cam Talbot in the Red Wings' goal has been excellent and deserves much of the credit for the points so far, but the question is how sustainable that is.

How Good Are the Leafs Without Matthews?

Auston Matthews is one of the world’s best goal scorers and actually won the scoring title last season with 69 goals in the regular season. His potential absence tonight is, of course, a major blow for the Maple Leafs. Despite this, there are plenty of quality players who can step in to fill the gap in the lineup. William Nylander, in particular, has been one of the league’s standout players so far. With his 10 goals, he is tied for second place in the scoring race behind Kucherov and Reinhart. Mitch Marner also seems to have found his old form, currently leading the Maple Leafs in points.

Before the season, the Canadians bolstered their lineup with strong acquisitions that have improved their standing. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chris Tanev, and Anthony Stolarz have helped stabilize the Leafs' defense. Meanwhile, Matthew Knies has taken another step forward, and the late addition of Max Pacioretty has provided even more forward depth. In other words, the team is better equipped to handle Matthews' absence than before. In a home game against a Red Wings team that leaves much to be desired, I think it’s Toronto’s game to lose, which I don’t believe they will.

Betting Tip and Conclusion

I’ve made it clear on several occasions that I’m not impressed with how the Red Wings have constructed their team. The underlying numbers support the argument that they are not a functioning unit. As long as Cam Talbot continues to overperform, the Red Wings will likely pick up more points, but in the long run, it’s unsustainable. Against a Toronto Maple Leafs team with many offensive weapons, I don’t think it will be enough for Detroit to withstand and secure points. If we’re lucky, Matthews could even be back tonight. However, I’m not counting on it, and even without him, I believe the Leafs should be even clearer favorites than they already are.

My pick is Toronto Maple Leafs FT @ 1.87 on bet365