Tip: Conference final when Florida Panthers visit New York Rangers!

Two of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup later this year will face each other during tonight's NHL round. The home team, New York Rangers, will do what they can to stop the in-form Florida Panthers and close the gap.

The league's two most in-form teams

It's a clash between two of the league's absolute most in-form teams at Madison Square Garden in tonight's match. The visiting Florida Panthers, like the home team New York Rangers, have amassed 30 points in the last 20 games, the best in the league during that period, with the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs closely behind with 29 points. However, the teams differ in several ways and have entirely different strengths. While Florida is the pure "xG monster" that is incredibly skilled at overwhelming the opponent with heavy pressing play that locks the puck in the offensive zone and forces dangerous scoring chances, the New York Rangers are somewhat more balanced but with incredibly efficient scorers who often tip the match in their favor.

If we delve into the underlying numbers, like xG (expected goals), Florida is in many ways superior to the Rangers. No other team has as good an xGF%, which simply means that the Panthers create a lot offensively and allow relatively little defensively. Much of the team's success can especially be attributed to the first line, with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart being totally dominant when they are on the ice. Barkov lifting the Selke Trophy almost feels obvious, and with Reinhart's efficient scoring, they will be hard to stop in the playoffs.

New York Rangers was one of the strongest teams last season even though their underlying numbers weren't top ten in the league then either. Rangers play mostly very structured and help the goaltender Igor Shesterkin (or Quick) a lot. They have one of the league's best powerplays and penalty kills, while efficient scorers like Panarin, Kreider, Zibanejad, and Trocheck are always dangerous offensive threats. In addition to one of the league's best offensive defensemen in Adam Fox, there is also a lot of talent in the squad that is starting to show its worth. Not least, Alexis Lafrenière is having a breakthrough season with 18 goals and 21 assists after 61 games played. The combination of everything gives Rangers a lethal mix of edge, experience, and talent that goes a very long way.

Betting tips and conclusion

Florida enters as slight favorites in this meeting, and even though I rate them very highly, I don't entirely agree with that valuation. Granted, Blake Wheeler is injured, but the veteran forward has not been a significant factor for the Rangers this season. Rangers are facing a healthy Florida Panthers, but as the home team and with the incredible stability the team still possesses, I would argue that the odds are a bit too high on New York Rangers.

A common mistake I've learned from over the years is not to get too fixated on underlying numbers. Panthers are uncomfortably efficient, but being skilled at exposing weaker teams in the league differs significantly from being allowed the same opportunity against structured teams like New York Rangers. They are facing a completely different structured hockey compared to what they've encountered in recent rounds (Red Wings, Canadiens, Sabres, etc.). Florida may very well win the battle, but not in over 54% (1.85) of the cases as the odds currently suggest. We're backing the home team in tonight's top clash!

New York Rangers ML @ -100 at bet365!